Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 19 Aug 2026, 16:07

August 19 - Stocks are trading modestly higher late morning after the U.S. Treasury announced Wednesday that it would double its announced buy back program. The Treasury will buy back $4 billion in nominal coupon securities, versus the $2 billion previously. The buy back program applies to the longer end of the yield curve, with the announcement coming after yields on 10-year Treasuries popped to new 19-month highs. The buy back helps balance the supply and demand for debt certificates, reducing upward pressure on yields.

Firmer stocks helped the VIX slip back to the 15 area today, while the dollar index fell to fresh 3-month lows below 98.8, although it is currently trading near 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.19%. WTI crude oil is trading near $87, while Brent trades near $92 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets are all notably higher as the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour continues to post images and reports on social media of "disappointing" yield potential as the western leg of the tour moves into northwestern Iowa. The eastern leg is in central Illinois seeing more consistent results today, but there are a few problems there as well. Wheat prices came along for the ride, supported by the continued escalation in the Black Sea war that is restricting exports, with some customers now starting to look for alternative options to fill needs.

Chinese buyers purchased another 12 vessels - estimated 28.3 million bushels - of Brazilian grain sorghum recently, reflecting their interest in diversifying away from the U.S. market. China first approved Brazilian sorghum purchases in September 2025, while making their first test purchase in January of this year. The United States is the world's largest grain sorghum producer, but it is heavily dependent on the Chinese business to offload surplus supplies. Losing that business would push a larger share of the crop into the feed and ethanol markets, offsetting corn demand. The next question is, will grain sorghum be on the table, along with corn, wheat, beef, etc. when President Xi meets with President Trump next month?

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - SPR) rose 4.4 million to 428.8 million barrels in the week ending August 14. That puts those commercial stocks roughly on par with the five-year average for mid-August. The SPR fell another 5.3 million to 293.4 million barrels. Gasoline stocks increased by 0.7 million barrels during the week, leaving them 5% below seasonal levels. Distillate stocks dropped by another 1.5 million barrels, putting them 13% below levels typically seen in mid-August as we approach the high-demand harvest season. However, propane/propylene stocks rose by 2.0 million barrels in the week ending August 14, putting them 31% above what we would expect to see at this time of year, suggesting that drying fuel should be more than adequate this fall.

Ethanol stocks rose to 25.1 million barrels in the week ending August 14, up from 24.8 million the previous week, and up from 22.7 million barrels a year earlier. Ethanol production dropped to 1,089K barrels per day last week, down from a strong 1,117K bpd the previous week, but up from 1,072K bpd in the same week last year. Estimated corn use for fuel ethanol production last week was 107.8 million bushels, down from 110.6 million the previous week, but up from 104.4 million bushels in the same week last year. Marketing year to date estimated corn use for fuel ethanol production totals 5.291 billion bushels, up 93 million from this point last year, and close to the pace needed to hit USDA's target.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 26

August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 13:31

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