Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 27

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 27 Aug 2025, 16:13

August 27 – The S&P 500 is flirting with another all-time high at mid-day as the major U.S. stock indexes push higher yet again and the VIX remains muted below the 15 level. The market gets a bit of a break from major economic data today before picking up again tomorrow with revised Q2 GDP and weekly jobless claims in focus, followed by an update on PCE and consumer sentiment on Friday. With economic data relatively limited, much of the market’s focus is on upcoming earnings from Nvidia after the bell, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq seeing the lightest gains of the major indexes at the time of writing in anticipation. The dollar is attempting to wipe out yesterday's losses, up 0.2% on the day to trade near 98.43 at midday. The spread between 10-and-2-year treasuries is continuing to widen, with 10-year yields pushing higher to trade above 4.27% while 2-year yields fall below 3.65%, a 5-month low. Crude oil has rebounded following a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI breaking above the $64 level briefly but trading around $63.90 at the time of writing. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains mostly quietly lower but both live and feeder cattle futures up aggressively again today as they both push to fresh all-time highs, a very common theme in 2025.

China’s industrial profits fell by 1.7% year-over-year between January and July, a slight improvement from the 1.8% decline in the first half of 2025 but marking the third straight negative reading (and eighth negative reading in the last twelve months) as the world’s second-largest economy continues to struggle amid ongoing deflationary pressures and trade tensions with the U.S., their top export destination. By sector, the biggest drops were seen in coal mining (-55.2%), oil and gas (-12.6%), chemicals (-8.0%), and textiles (-6.5%). Elsewhere, the biggest gains were seen in China’s agriculture sector (+14.5%), electrical machinery and equipment (+11.7%), non-ferrous metals (+6.9%), and computers and communications (+6.7%). China’s top negotiator, Li Chenggang, is expected to meet with deputy-level U.S. government officials tomorrow and Friday, though no meeting has reportedly been set with his counterpart, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, thus far as this visit is not being considered part of formal negotiations. Still, markets will be keeping an eye on the results of these meetings given the wide-ranging implications for the commodity sector and the global economy more broadly.

U.S. tariffs on India officially doubled to 50% today, taking effect as planned following a failure to reach an agreement to postpone. However, some of the largest sectors of Indian exports to the U.S. are exempt from these tariffs, most notably pharmaceuticals, electronics (smartphones, semiconductors, etc.), and energy-related exports. This cushions the blow to an extent, but expectations are for just over half of India’s exports to the U.S. to be subject to the new tariffs, with the textiles, footwear, furniture, and jewelry sectors among the most impacted. For context, the U.S. Treasury Department reported the total value of U.S. imports from India at roughly $87.4 billion in 2024, making them our 10^th largest source of imports. The additional 25% tariffs are a response to India’s ongoing large-scale purchases of Russian energy products (namely crude oil), but the country doesn’t appear to have any plans to stop these purchases, with India’s junior Foreign Minister Kirti Vardhan Singh stating, “our concern is our energy security, and we will continue to purchase energy sources from whichever country benefits us.” Other top buyers of Russian energy products, like China and Turkey, have avoided such secondary tariffs thus far.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 2.392 million barrels in the week ending 8/22, sharper than market expectations of a 1.863-million-barrel decline, bringing total stocks (excluding the SPR) to 418.29 million, a 9-week low. Refinery utilization fell by 2.0% week-over-week, much sharper than the 0.4% decline expected and marking the biggest weekly drop seen in the U.S. since weather-related dips back in January. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.236 million barrels, not as sharp as the expected 2.154-million-barrel draw but still bringing total gasoline stocks to their lowest level of 2025 at 222.23 million barrels, though this follows the typical seasonal pattern at this time. Distillate stocks saw the biggest surprise of the week, falling by 1.786 million barrels week-over-week, a huge miss compared to the average analyst estimate of a 0.885-million-barrel build. Despite the unexpected weekly decline, the current stocks of 114.24 million barrels still represents a notable improvement from recent tightness, up 11.1% from the 20-year low hit back in early July following strong builds over the last few weeks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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