Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 04 Aug 2025, 17:12

Today's Perspective Video: China's Big $160 Billion Mega-Project Bet Amid New Trump Tariffs

August 4 - Stocks are posting a strong rebound at midday, recovering much of Friday's losses after that bad jobs report, as investors raise their bets about a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Investors are now banking on a rate cut in September, while also now trading expectations of a total of three cuts by the December meeting. The VIX has slipped back below 18 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%, marking a fresh one-month low, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.70%, after falling to a fresh three-month low earlier in the session. Crude oil prices are more than 1% lower on increased OPEC output, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed to weaker. The exception is the soybean market after the oilseed saw strong export inspections reported for last week, while the wheat markets have traded both sides of unchanged at times.

USDA inspected 22.5 million bushels of soybeans for export shipment in the week ending July 31 - the largest weekly total in four months. It also inspected 47.5 million bushels of corn, 22.0 million bushels of wheat, and 0.5 million bushels of grain sorghum. U.S. wheat remains competitive at these low prices, supporting strong early-year export demand, while the absence of Chinese buying of grain sorghum continues to see that commodity lag the pace needed to hit USDA's target by roughly 12 million bushels. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.758 billion bushels, up 176 million bushels or 11% from the previous year's pace. Keep in mind that not all shipments require inspection. As such, the year to date inspection total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 46 million bushels, suggesting that we could see another increase in USDA's target for old-crop beans. Marketing year to date corn export inspections total 2.423 billion bushels, up 535 million bushels or 285 from the previous year's pace, and 71 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. As such, corn could also see its export target increased by USDA next week.

The primary problem for soybeans is the lack of new-crop sales on the books. Just 111 million bushels of new-crop U.S. soybeans are currently on the books to various buyers as of July 24th, the latest date for which data is available. That's down from 130 million bushels a year ago at this point, down from 297 million bushels two years ago, and down from 546 million bushels in 2022 at this point. Top of the list is the fact that China currently has zero bushels of U.S. new-crop soybeans on the books. Last year it had just 6 million bushels of new-crop U.S. soybeans on the books at this point, but three years ago it had 313 million bushels on the books already by the end of July. Lest you think that perhaps China is hiding purchases under the "unknown destinations" label, that category only has 37 million bushels of new-crop soybean sales attributed to it, down from 92 million a year ago at this point, down from 119 million two years ago, and down from 145 million bushels the year prior to that. This is also at a time when several other countries have started utilizing "unknown destinations" to hide purchases.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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