Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 07 Aug 2025, 17:29

Today's Perspective Video: Trump's Strategy Fuels Uncertainty: What it Means for Rates, Consumers & Corn Yields

August 7 - Stocks trimmed their early gains through the morning on a wire service report that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is near the top of President Trump's list of potential nominees to replace current Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires next May. Waller was one of two members of the Federal Open Market Committee to vote no to the monetary policy approved by the FOMC at its late July meeting, saying that he thought a rate cut was justified. It was the first time for a double-dissent on a Fed vote since December 1993, raising questions about dissention in the ranks. Naming Waller as the nominee would put other members in the position of having to determine where their loyalty will lie - with the current chair or the future chair? The bottom line is that it looks a lot like political influence. Wall Street wants a rate cut as much as the president does, but it doesn't like political influence of the Fed.

The VIX is trading above 17 with the weakness in stocks, although that's still relatively low, while the dollar index is trading near 98.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.25%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.73%. Crude oil prices are trading modestly weaker, while the grain and oilseed complex is rebounding today from recent price weakness. I'd call it value buying entering the market after it ran out of sellers at new lows. That doesn't mean that the market can't go lower, but it does suggest that - for now - the market isn't comfortable going lower. It has priced in big crops. Perhaps it doesn't need to go lower unless USDA gives it an impression that the crops are even larger than what has already been priced in, and I would argue that it has already probably priced in crops that are bigger than the pre-report estimates for Tuesday's crop report.

Most notably, December corn pushed below psychological support at $4 yesterday, but then ran out of sellers, leading value buyers and short covering to pull prices back above $4 before the close of trade. We're seeing follow through buying today from both end users and speculators on the idea that a near-term low may be in place. It's too early to know whether this is the "harvest low". USDA's numbers on Tuesday and the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour the following week could influence that thinking in the market. Meanwhile, export demand for U.S. corn remain quite impressive, and that strength includes new-crop corn for the marketing year that begins September 1, as shown below. New-crop commitments total 464 million bushels already as of July 31, which is 234 million bushels ahead of last year's pace. New-crop commitments were at a strong 688 million bushels four years ago due to Chinese buying, but now it is largely buying by Mexico. China had 423 million bushels on the books already four years ago - zero today - while Mexico has a large 177 million bushels on the books this year, and that number is rapidly rising. Unknown destinations has 120 million on the books - quite impressive - much of which is also likely to Mexico. Look for the market to trade demand once it is comfortable with the size of the crop - whatever that size may be.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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