Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

We saw another round of sizable flash sales announced by USDA this morning, with a total of 238k metric tons (8.74 million bushels) of new crop soybeans sold to China and a total of 286k metric tons (10.09 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico. This caps off a big week of reported Chinese purchases, with U.S. soybean flash sales for the 2026/27 marketing year totaling 1.116 million metric tons (41.01 million bushels). Of that total, 980k metric tons (36.01 mbu) were explicitly to China, with the remainder to unknown destinations, which may very well also be China. While there is still a very long way to go to get anywhere near the alleged 25 million metric ton commitment, this renewed strength in buying interest has pushed cumulative new crop soybean sales to their strongest at this time in four years, with crush demand estimated 538 million bushels (or 24.3%) higher in 2026/27 than in the 2022/23 marketing year. On the corn side, what stood out regarding the sales to Mexico was the fact that the bulk of the total was for the 2027/28 marketing year. Between Wednesday and today, USDA reported total flash corn sales to Mexico of 406k metric tons (15.98 million bushels), with 346.29k metric tons (13.63 million bushels) of that total being for 2027/28. This should serve as a reminder of the growth in Mexican corn import demand amid the ongoing expansion of their domestic livestock sector, even with the phased reopening of the border to feeder cattle imports.

Consumer inflation expectations cooled to 3.6% in July from the 3.7% seen in June, per this morning’s release from the New York Fed. It was a bit of a surprise to see a month-on-month decline from June into July given the resumption of conflict between the U.S. and Iran following the return of fighting in July, but it’s also worth noting this is a decline from a nearly three-year high for the benchmark. It does follow similarly better than expected consumer inflation expectations data seen on the University of Michigan’s July Survey of Consumers, in which one-year inflation expectations fell from June while five-year expectations held steady. Again, the real test will be seeing what the data actually shows, adding further anticipation to next week’s inflation releases, with July CPI due out Wednesday (8/12) and PPI following on Thursday (8/13)—please note I incorrectly had those dates each one day early on this morning’s commentary.

Average hourly earnings in the U.S. slumped in July, rising 0.1% month-on-month, missing expectations of holding steady with the 0.3% growth seen in June. In year-over-year terms, average hourly earnings cooled to 3.2% growth, also missing expectations of a 3.5% uptick. Furthermore, May and June were both revised 0.1% lower to now sit at 3.3% and 3.4% growth, respectively. The slowdown in wage growth comes with the dovish tilt of less than expected underlying inflationary pressures to help offset some of the energy shock, but the longer-term concern here is the decline in real wages.

The graphic below shows the return of negative real wage growth in recent months for the first time since early 2023, towards the tail-end of the last battle with inflation. The current Reuters poll for next Wednesday’s CPI print shows an average estimate of a 3.4% year-over-year rise in July, cooling slightly from June’s 3.5%. If that comes to fruition, this morning’s slowdown in earnings would result in a net 0.2% decline in real wage growth—i.e. consumer-level inflation outpacing wage gains. While much of the market’s focus today is on how this data impacts front-end Fed policy, it’s important to not lose sight of the potential slowing of consumer demand in this environment if we do in fact see a resurgence of inflation.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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