Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for December 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 17 Dec 2025, 17:52

Today's Perspective Video: The Big 3 Shaping Ag Commodities in '26

December 17 - The tech sector led stocks lower at midday on renewed AI worries. We're also seeing a bit of holiday malaise set into these markets, which is typical for the period between the Thanksgiving holiday and the start of the new calendar year. The VIX firmed to trade above 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 98.3 following its drop to a two-month low on Tuesday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.50%. Crude oil prices bounced off yesterday's low as the White House talks of a possible blockade of sanctioned Venezuela oil shipments. That triggered some short covering, but end users also saw value at yesterday's multi-year low below $55 per barrel. Corn and Kansas City wheat prices also found modest buying interest after holding chart support, while soybeans and Chicago soft wheat both fell to new lows for the move after chart support gave way.

USDA confirmed rumors in the cash market that China had cancelled the purchase of two cargoes of U.S. soft white wheat purchased several weeks ago. No reason was given, but Argentine prices are certainly more attractive currently. The original purchase of the white wheat raised optimism about the China trade deal. The White House told us that the deal included 12 million metric tons (441 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans in the current year, along with grain sorghum, wheat, etc., and the wheat purchases gave us a reason to be optimistic about China's intentions. The cancellation of the purchase now raises doubts.

China has purchased roughly 7.7 million metric tons of the 12 mmt of soybeans in the deal, and it continues to buy. The wheat cancellation reminds us that soybean cancellations can happen as well. The problem for China now is a lack of storage room for the 12 mmt it committed to buying in the current year. It has been auctioning off older supplies in its reserves to make room for these purchases, but those auctions have not gone as well as it would have liked. As such, I expect shipment of the soybeans being purchased to stretch out over the next eight months or so, unless something happens soon to threaten the Brazil crop. It's currently the equivalent of mid-August for us in the Brazil crop cycle, so they'll be harvesting soon. Chinese ports will be clogged with ships arriving with newly harvest cheap Brazil supplies from March well into the summer.

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 1.3 million to 424.4 million barrels in the week ending December 12, putting them roughly 4% below the five-year average for mid-December. Gasoline stocks increased by 4.8 million barrels, putting them just slightly below levels typically seen in mid-December. Distillate stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels, putting them 6% below seasonal levels. Ethanol stocks slipped slightly to 22.4 million barrels, down from 22.5 million barrels the previous week, and down from 22.6 million barrels in the same week last year.

Meanwhile, ethanol production rose to a record 1,131K barrels per day in the week ending December 12, up from 1,105K bpd the previous week, and up from 1,103K bpd in the same week last year. Estimated corn use for ethanol production rose to 110.9 million bushels last week, up from 108.3 million the previous week, and up from 108.2 million bushels of corn in the same week last year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for ethanol totals 1.561 billion bushels, down 18 million bushels or 1.1% from the previous year's pace due to increased efficiencies in this year's production. The year to date total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 23 million bushels, unchanged on the week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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