Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for December 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 08 Dec 2025, 17:38

December 8 – It’s officially Fed week, with the FOMC due to begin their December meeting tomorrow before ultimately releasing their decision on Wednesday. CME’s FedWatch continues to reflect strong market expectations of a 25-basis point rate cut, with the odds near 88% at the time of writing, but perhaps the bigger thing for traders to watch will be the comments from individual Fed officials and the potential for a growing number of dissenters given the ongoing lack of hard data post-shutdown and concerns of lingering inflationary pressures. Speaking of the inflationary picture, the New York Fed’s Survey of Economic Expectations showed year-ahead consumer inflation expectations holding steady at 3.2% in November, while the three-and-five-year expectations also held steady at 3.0%, respectively. Consumers’ perceptions of their household financial situation did decrease notably, however, with the share of respondents saying they were worse off than a year ago rising to 38.97%, the highest seen since November 2023. After getting through this week’s meeting, the debate will shift to 2026 policy; it’s interesting to note the more hawkish tilt looking ahead today, with the next rate cut not being fully priced in until June.

Stocks have faded through the morning after a positive start, with the major indexes all in the red at mid-day and the VIX rising to touch the 17-mark for the first time since Wednesday. The dollar is quietly higher to start the week, trading just below the 99.2 level at the time of writing, with all eyes there on this week’s Fed meeting as well. Treasuries continue to rise, with 10-year yields hitting their highest level since late September just below the 4.18% mark while 2-year yields push to their highest level since mid-November just above the 3.59% mark. Crude oil is starting the week off on a negative note, with nearby WTI down ~1.6% at the time of writing as it falls back below $60, hovering just above $59.10/barrel. The ags are mostly lower on the day, with soybeans leading the way down as nearby futures fall below the $11.00 mark for the first time since late October, as the trade looks to tomorrow’s fresh fundamental updates in USDA’s December WASDE, due out at 11:00 AM Central.

This probably sounds like a broken record at this point, but weekly corn export inspections came in above even their top-end estimate once again, with Mexico again the featured destination on the 57.2 million bushels (mbu) inspected in the week ending December 4^th. Cumulative ‘25/’26 marketing year to date corn inspections now total 812 mbu, up a whopping 69.4% year-over-year and easily maintaining the record-strong pace. Similarly, wheat export inspections remain strong, with this week’s 14.5 mbu coming in near the top-end estimate and the cumulative total remaining at its strongest pace in nine years, a comfortable 5.8% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s most recent 900 mbu export target.

China finally showed up in today’s export inspections report for the first time this marketing year, with 4.4 mbu of soybeans making them the second-largest destination for the week there, while a miniscule 40.5k bushels of milo represented the only shipments inspected in the week. While it’s great to finally see the confirmation of bushels flowing to China once again, and another 132,000 MT (4.85 mbu) of flash soybean sales to China reported this morning, the reality of the hole we’re digging out of appears to be setting in for the trade. Cumulative soybean inspections through the first 14 weeks of the marketing year total only 473.98 mbu, down 45.2% year-over-year and marking the slowest pace seen in 12+ years. The milo side isn’t much prettier, now totaling 18.51 mbu, down 59.5% year-over-year and marking the slowest pace in three years. Much of the debate on the soybean export target has centered on China’s purchase pace lagging the 12 MMT (~441 mbu) commitment by the end of 2025, but it’s important to keep in mind that even if these commitments are achieved, we’d still need to see our second-largest non-China soybean exports of all-time (1.194 bbu) to reach the 1.635 bbu target that USDA is forecasting. Given how much cheaper South American supply has looked this year, it’s difficult to see that happening.

USDA continues to play catch-up with export sales data, with numbers for the week ending November 6^th released this morning, showing net ‘25/’26 corn sales at 38.6 mbu, below the low-end estimate, soybean sales of 18.8 mbu, toward the low-end estimate, and all wheat sales of 17.0 mbu, within the expected range. Cumulative corn and wheat sales through early November continue to impress while soybeans and milo (sorghum) continue to disappoint; no surprise given what we’ve seen on the inspections side. Through November 6^th, cumulative corn sales were 6.4% ahead of the seasonal pace needed to reach USDA’s record export target, wheat sales were 8.8% ahead, but soybean and milo sales were 23.6% and 63.3% behind their respective seasonal paces needed to reach USDA’s export targets.

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