Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 16:25

February 13 - A good jobs report on Wednesday followed by a good inflation report today translates into elevated hopes on Wall Street that the Federal Reserve now has a clearer path to more rate cuts later this year. Few investors are expecting the next rate cut to come during the remainder of Jerome Powell's tenure at the Fed, but the they expect the cutting cycle to resume once his replacement comes into office. That provided modest tailwinds this morning for stocks, aided by lower Treasury yields as Wall Street again anticipates two to three rate cuts in the last half of the year.

Yet, the VIX Is trading near 21, reflecting elevated nerves on the Street, as the dollar index trades near 97.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, trading at their lowest levels since December 1 today, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.42%, after trading at nearly four-month lows this morning. Crude oil prices are quietly mixed, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker. The markets will be closed for President's Day on Monday, elevating headline risk during the three-day holiday weekend. However, China is entering its annual Lunar Day Holiday that will largely have it shutdown through February 23, reducing headlines somewhat flowing from there.

Price movement picked up in the grain and oilseed sector over the past week, but not due to USDA's big crop report on Tuesday. That report was relatively benign. Rather, it's been money flow issues and geopolitical developments having the greater impact on price movement. The bottom line is that U.S. grain and oilseed balance sheets are well supplied, with little reason to sustain a rally that would ration demand at this point. Soybeans technically have the tightest balance sheet, with USDA projecting a stocks to use ratio of 8.2%, versus 12.9% for corn and 45.9% for wheat. But soybean fundamentals are also affected by a bumper crop currently being harvested in Brazil, and who's beans are priced more than a $1 per bushel cheaper landed at the port in China currently.

Yet, the soybean complex rallied this week based on money flow speculation on two factors. The first is that we might have another trade deal with China coming in the weeks ahead that could result in another 8 mmt (294 million bushels) of current year supplies going to China. The second is that we could see the U.S. EPA send its final biofuel regulations to the White House Office of Management and Budget as soon as today. Both could prove to be bullish for soybean demand. Corn and wheat prices rallied on thoughts that a China trade deal might include those grains. However, slim those chances are, it makes traders holding large short positions nervous. As such, much of the strength was money flow related, aided by chart signals in wheat. Much of that strength dissipated today, with a three day holiday weekend ahead of us and China entering a holiday the next 10 days, reducing the odds that we'll hear much on that front.

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