Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for February 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 05 Feb 2026, 19:03

Today's Perspective Video: Major Internal China Policy Shift: What it Means for US Ag Exports

February 5 - Broader selling continues on Wall Street, but the story today is in the Ag commodities following President Trump's comments on more possible exports to China. The VIX is trading near 21 at this hour, after briefly peaking above 23 midday, which was its highest level since late November. The dollar index is trading near 97.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.21%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. Crude oil prices are more than 2% lower, while the grain and oilseed sector is mostly higher.

This morning's JOLTS job report showed that there were 6.542 million open job postings at the end of December, That number comes in below the lowest of the trade estimates, raising concerns about what we might find in next Wednesday's delayed monthly jobs report. The trade expected the number to come in near 7.245 million, which would have been an increase from the previous month. Instead, the December number dropped and the November number was revised to 6.928 million, down from 7.15 originally. Wall Street sees these numbers as more evidence arguing for lower interest rates.

Let's go back to yesterday's post by President Trump in which he stated that he is encouraging President Xi to buy another 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current "season," which I interpret as marketing year. My balance sheet below reflects how I would see that play out IF it were to happen. Be sure to read my Morning Perspective Commentary from earlier today if you have not for background to this issue. I still remain skeptical that this will happen. I expect China to counter propose buying other U.S. Ag commodities instead of more soybeans, which is why we're seeing strength across the board today. But I can't rule out that Xi might appease Trump with the 8 mmt of soybeans.

So, where do you come up with 294 million bushels of soybeans when my ending stocks estimate prior to Trump's statement was 300 million bushels? Basis in Brazil would weaken while prices in the U.S. would strengthen. Non-China business would shift to Brazil - at least a significant portion of it. Imports of Brazilian soybeans into the Southeast would rise. Record imports were 12 years ago at 72 million bushels. I'll put them at 55 million at this point. I stay with strong crush, since I still remain optimistic that the biofuel program will drive that, although we should know more in a month or so. Exports rise to 1.700 billion bushels, with ending stocks falling to 185 million bushels, or 4.2% of expected use. The marketing year average cash price doesn't go up much, because farmers have already sold most of this year's crop. It would help tighten next year's balance sheet, requiring more acres to be planted. Again, this is only a "what if" scenario.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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