Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 20 Jan 2023, 17:24

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 20 - Stocks pushed modestly higher at midday as Wall Street traders focused on expectations of a pivot by the Fed, as well as on expectations that Republicans will blink first in the poker game over raising the national debt ceiling. Additional support came from data showing existing home sales dipped less than expected in December, although they're still down 34% year-on-year. The VIX is trading near 19 at midday, reflecting easing fears on Wall Street. The dollar index is firmer at 102.2, although off of its highs for the session. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.49%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher after reversing early session lows. Grain and oilseed prices are mixed overall. Wheat prices found support from bargain hunters buying just above key chart support following recent losses. Soybean prices remain under pressure as the next 10 days look much wetter for Argentina, before drying out again. Corn prices have been mostly lower, but stuck between soybeans and wheat. Live cattle futures firmed following recent weakness as traders position for this afternoon's USDA cattle-on-feed report. It is expected to show the fourth consecutive month of lower year-on-year inventories, with the peak in numbers now behind us. Lean hog futures are bouncing today, following their massive selloff of the past three weeks.

Export sales for the week ending January 12 included 44.6 million bushels of old-crop corn, as shown below, along with 36.2 million bushels of soybeans, 17.4 million bushels of old-crop wheat and 7.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. China was the buyer of the grain sorghum, marking its first significant purchase of the feed grain in some time. U.S. exportable supplies are difficult to find following last year's drought in the Plains. Japan was the featured buyer of U.S. corn during the week at a net 13.4 million bushels, with Mexico coming in second at a net 10.7 million bushels. China was down for 2.8 million bushels of U.S. corn, but that was primarily a shift from previous sales to "unknown destinations." China was the featured buyer of U.S. soybeans in the week ending January 12 at a net 18.6 million bushels, but 11.5 million of that total was merely a shift from previous purchases listed under "unknown destinations." Mexico added a net 9.6 million bushels of soybean purchases during the week.

Today's data for the week ending January 12 puts marketing year to date corn export sales at 910.5 million bushels, which is 252 million bushels below the seasonal pace for reaching USDA's target. This morning's reported weekly total of 44.6 million bushels was the third largest since the marketing year started on September 1st, but it only got us close to where we should be this time of year and it did little to close the deficit created by sluggish sales the past several months. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.668 billion bushels, which exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. That's the good news. It should be noted though that there are roughly 10 million metric tons of sales to China and "unknown destinations" that remain unshipped. The speed and size of the Brazilian harvest may determine whether those soybeans all get shipped in the current marketing year, or whether a portion get rolled into the next marketing year.

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