Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 27 Jan 2026, 16:52

January 27 – Stocks are mixed at mid-day with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, up nearly 1% on the day as it trades at a nearly three-month high, while the Dow Jones is down over 0.5% at the time of writing, and the S&P 500 is caught in the middle, up roughly 0.5%. A sense of calm appears to be returning to Wall Street, however, with the VIX cooling to hover around 15.8 after spiking as high as 21 just a week ago. The dollar continues its sharp decline as well, trading to a nearly four-year low today just below the 96.2 level, shedding roughly 3.3% since the start of last week. Treasuries are quietly mixed, with 10-year yields just above unchanged on the day at 4.22% while 2-year yields trade just below unchanged at 3.575%. Crude oil is rebounding from yesterday’s losses, with nearby WTI pushing near $61.90/barrel at the time of writing, up roughly 1.7% on the day. The ags have traded both sides of unchanged today and remain largely mixed with soybeans and soyoil leading the way higher.

Global trade ties are back in the headlines today following the announcement of a landmark trade deal between India and the European Union, with both sides slashing tariffs on nearly all goods, with a handful of ag products among some of the only exclusions. E.U. officials stated that the deal is expected to double the bloc’s exports to India by 2032. Elsewhere, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on his way to China today in an attempt to improve relations with the country amid recent tensions, the first such visit by a British leader in eight years. It will be very interesting to keep an eye on the U.S. response to the outcome of this meeting following Trump’s renewed threats of massive tariffs on Canada in the wake of their recent trade agreement with China. Meanwhile, President Trump yesterday announced that he would be raising tariffs on U.S. ally South Korea from 15% up to 25% after accusing the country of “not living up to its Deal with the United States.” Whether this increase will actually come to fruition or simply be used as a negotiating tactic remains to be seen, while many U.S. trade partners are also likely keeping a close eye on the Supreme Court to finally issue their ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs… whenever that happens.

Traders got a fresh look at the U.S. housing market this morning with releases from both Case Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Both indexes painted a similar picture, with the Case Shiller Home Price Index rising 1.4% year-over-year and FHFA’s Index rising 1.9% year-over-year in November, both rebounding from lows seen in October but continuing to mark a notable cooldown from the sharp gains seen in the early 2020’s. For reference, the former index made a low since July 2023 in October at 1.3% while the latter made decade-plus lows in both September and October at 1.8%. Both of these were slightly above analysts' expectations but continue to point to a slowing housing market, with gains in home prices remaining lower than consumer level inflation for the second half of 2025, effectively resulting in declining real home values.

The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Index rose to -6 in January from the -7 seen in December, moving in the opposite direction of an expected decline to -8. Similar to yesterday’s data, today’s reading points to a healthier than expected U.S. manufacturing sector, though still struggling as this marks the 11^th consecutive month in contractionary territory. Still, there were some silver linings in the data, with the forward outlook improving as the Expectations Index for both shipments and new order volumes rose notably.

On another positive note, the Dallas Fed’s General Business Activity Index for the service sector broke back into expansionary territory in January at 2.7, up notably from -5.0 in the month prior and marking the first positive reading since August. Service sector revenues were also their highest since August, with the index rising to 7.8 in January from a flat (0.0) reading in December. The forward outlook improved as well, with the Company Outlook Index returning to positive territory at 5.6 versus the -2.7 reading seen in the month prior. Expectations for future revenues, capital expenditures, and employment were all positive as well.

Consumer confidence took a nosedive in January, however, with Conference Board’s headline index falling to 84.5, sharply below the average analyst estimate of 90.9 and even below the low-end estimate of 88. December was revised higher, now pegged at 94.2 versus the 89.1 initially reported, though that makes the month-on-month decline look even worse. In fact, this was the worst first reading of the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index since May 2014, narrowly surpassing the pandemic lows. The decline was widespread, with Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson noting that “all five components of the Index deteriorated.” The real question now is whether or not this waning confidence translates to serious declines in consumer spending. The U.S. economy has continued to prove more resilient than expected, but we’ll certainly need to keep a close eye on the situation moving forward, as consumer confidence can be a leading indicator of future consumption.

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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