Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for January 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 29 Jan 2025, 16:28

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

January 29 – The euphoria of the tech sector’s AI-driven rally has been sobered up a bit this week with multiple Chinese companies unveiling updated AI models that look to potentially challenge their U.S. rivals with lower costs. After Monday’s violent selloff that saw Nvidia shed a single day record amount of market cap following DeepSeek’s announcement, the tech sector rebounded solidly yesterday before mostly falling back off today in the wake of Alibaba’s release of its updated Qwen 2.5 Max model. Because of the pressure in the tech sector, the tech heavy Nasdaq leads the major indexes lower at mid-day, while the S&P 500 also hangs in the red, and the Dow Jones struggles to hold near unchanged after making small gains earlier in the session. The VIX is up on the day trading near 16.8, though this is still down solidly from Monday’s spike above the 21 level. More volatility looks to be on deck in the near-term, however, with earnings from a handful of American tech giants (IBM, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) due after the close today.

Elsewhere in the market, the U.S. Dollar is rebounding from its early week selloff as it pushed above the 108 mark earlier in the session before falling back down to hover around the 107.8 level at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed at mid-day, with 10-year yields continuing their recent slide from highs earlier in the month as they fall below 4.54% while 2-year yields attempt a small recovery as they trade slightly higher above the 4.21% level. Crude oil is quietly lower on the day, with the nearby WTI contract trading near $73.30/barrel. The ags are mixed, with the grains largely higher as the wheat complex leads the way up, while the cattle complex finally takes a breather from its recent aggressive rally.

Average 30-year mortgage rates held steady at 7.02% in the week ending January 24th, marking the third consecutive week spent above the 7% level for the first time in eight months. The rise in borrowing costs weighed on demand, with new purchase applications falling 0.4% week-on-week while refinancing applications fell by 7.0%, leading to a composite index drop of 2.0%. Mortgage rates have been trending steadily higher since bottoming out in September at 6.13%, and expectations going forward have firmed, as evidenced by Fannie Mae’s ESR Group last week raising their forecasts for 2025 and 2026 mortgage rates by 0.3% each to 6.5% and 6.3%, respectively, amid the environment of a more hawkish Fed. Traders will get to hear a fresh update from the Fed this afternoon, though they’ll likely remain cautious in their language as they await more clarity on policy decisions from the new administration, especially with Saturday’s tariff deadline looming.

U.S. crude oil stocks rose by 3.46 million barrels week-on-week to reach 415.13 million, excluding the SPR, much sharper than market expectations and marking the highest weekly build since October. Gasoline stocks also rose much sharper than expectations at 2.96 million barrels week-on-week, bringing the total to 248.86 million. On the contrary, distillate stocks fell by more than expected at 4.99 million barrels week-on-week, with weekly demand of 5.633 million barrels showing contra-seasonal strength and marking a five-week high.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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