Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 13 Jul 2026, 16:44

Today's Perspective Video: Two Wars Shape the Commodity Markets

July 13 - President Trump formally declared the U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade back in effect this morning. That blockade is designed to block any Iranian ships from leaving or entering the Strait, as well as any ships doing business with Iran. It effectively cuts off revenue opportunities for Iran. President Trump also stated that we would be collecting a 20% protection fee based on the value of freight passing through the Strait, which has raised a number of questions for clarification. It's doubtful, although not out of the question, that he would assess those fees against shippers using the Strait, especially those using the U.S. prescribed route near Oman. Rather, there is some speculation that the fees might be reduced from the reconstruction funds committed to Iran in the original Memorandum of Understanding reached last month with Iran. Or, perhaps he was suggesting that fees would be applied to those shipments that utilize the route along Iran's coastline. I anticipate that we'll get that clarification from President Trump the next time that he takes questions from reporters.

Russian miltary forces hit two dry bulk carriers in Ukraine's port Pivdennyi, according to the Russian's Defense Ministry, as reported by Bloomberg. Russia has sometimes "accidentally" hit ship while targeting Ukraine's ports, but it now appears to be bragging about hitting ships, in light of the 100+ ships that Ukraine has hit in the past week plus of the Black Sea war. One of the ships was reportedly unloading fertilizer at the port. Ukraine continues to hit ships in the Sea of Azov, with the Kerch Strait still closed as a result. Ukraine indicates that it is hitting tankers transporting fuel to the war effort, as well as dark fleet tankers transporting Russian crude oil for the global market, in addition to ships carrying relief equipment and supplies for the war effort.

Nonetheless, today's developments continue to weigh on stocks on Wall Street as higher Treasury yields reflect rising inflation fears. We'll get June consumer price index data released tomorrow morning, with producer price index data coming out on Wednesday. Rising crude oil prices are pushing those July inflation estimates higher today. Yet, the VIX continues to trade below 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.61, reflecting a new seven-week high, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are at a new 16-month high near 4.26%. WTI crude oil is trading near $75, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel. Wheat prices pulled back a bit from Friday's big rally, while corn and soybean prices are higher once again. Heat in the Upper and Western Midwest adds some intrigue, while China bought another two cargoes of U.S. soybeans overnight.

USDA inspected 60.6 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending July 9, along with 15.4 million bushels of soybeans, 13.7 million bushels of wheat and 0.02 million bushels of grain sorghum. The grain sorghum was destined for China, along with 2.4 million bushels of the inspected soybeans, while no corn or wheat was inspected for shipment to China during the week. Marketing year to date wheat and grain sorghum inspections are both roughly 10 million bushels shy of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for shipments to all destinations, but it is a much different story for corn and for soybeans. Marketing year to date corn export inspections to all destinations exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 177 million bushels - up 6 million on the week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 63 million bushels - up 5 million bushels on the week. That made it surprising that we did not see USDA increase its corn export target on Friday, while also raising questions on why it didn't raise its soybean target by more as well.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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