Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 20 Jul 2022, 15:57

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 20 - Stocks are clinging onto gains this morning, while the VIX falls to trade below 24 for the first time since early June. The U.S. dollar is up, trading near 107, while yields on 10-year treasuries trade near unchanged around 3.02%. Crude oil is down, with nearby WTI back down slightly below $100, while the ags are mostly lower as well.

U.S. existing home sales came in lower than expected at an annualized rate of 5.12 million in June, below analyst estimates of 5.35 million and 5.41 million seen in May. This marks the fifth consecutive month-on-month drop, the longest stretch of drops seen in the U.S. since 2013 as mortgage rates climb to their highest levels since 2008. Despite the falling demand, the median selling price rose again, up 13.4% year-on-year to reach another new record high of $416,000.

Russian President Putin warned yesterday, following his summit in Iran, that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may be operating at a further-reduced rate when it comes back online tomorrow. The pipeline's flows had already been dropped to only 40% of its 160 million cubic meters per day capacity prior to the 10-day maintenance, as Russia continues to try to squeeze their Western foes under the pretext of technical issues. Putin claimed yesterday that if a part that is supposedly caught up in sanctions is not returned, the pipeline will only be able to pump 30 million cubic meters per day, under 20% of its capacity. Interestingly, this comes at a time that Russia's Gazprom reported daily flows to China via their Power of Siberia pipeline reached a new all-time record earlier in the week as the two powers continue to grow closer.

Inflation in the U.K. reached its highest level in 40 years, with today's data for June showing their CPI up 9.4% year-on-year, up from 9.1% in May and slightly above expectations of a 9.3% increase. This is the highest level since February 1982 and has shifted expectations for the Bank of England to hike rates by 50 basis points at their August 4th meeting, up from the previously-expected hike of 25 points, with talk growing that the European Central Bank will be doing the same at their meeting tomorrow as widespread inflation runs through Europe. The silver lining was that core inflation, excluding the more volatile food and energy sectors, did fall slightly, coming in at 5.8% vs. the 5.9% seen in May. However, input prices for manufacturers rose a whopping 24.0% year-on-year, up from the already-elevated 22.4% seen in the month prior's data, with factory gate prices up 16.5% year-on-year, their highest level since September 1977. This could be an indication that inflation readings won't be improving any time soon, as the downstream effects to consumers are felt.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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