Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 21 Jul 2022, 15:44

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

July 21 - Stocks are mixed this morning, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 trading lower while the NASDAQ holds onto small gains. The VIX is still trading slightly below 24, while yields on 10-year treasuries are down to trade near 2.95%. Crude oil is down fairly sharply on the return of Libyan exports and poor U.S. summer demand, with nearby WTI trading 3.7% lower to around $96/barrel. The ags are mixed with corn and soybeans down hard while the wheat complex touches both sides of unchanged.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke yesterday of Russia's expanded war aims, giving public confirmation to the widespread theory that they have no intention of stopping at "liberating the Donbas" as they've repeatedly stated since their failure to capture Kyiv early in the war. Lavrov said that Russia's goals have now expanded to the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions in southeastern Ukraine as well as "other territories," claiming that this is now necessary to protect the Russian-backed separatists in the nation's east from the long-range weapons supplied to the Ukrainian military by the U.S. and allies. This is just another example of Russia looking to blame the West to justify their actions, keeping the prospects of an end to the conflict at bay. Additionally, Lavrov said yesterday that peace talks don't make sense right now, adding to that sentiment. Despite all the positive talk, no official deal has been signed this week regarding grain exports through the Black Sea, and Lavrov's comments do nothing but cast more doubt.

This morning's updated drought monitor showed the toll that extended periods of abnormally hot, dry weather have taken on large swaths of the U.S. this summer. Drought conditions intensified from the week prior for much of the southwestern Midwest/Southern Plains, as well as some major corn & soybean producing areas of southern Minnesota, while some much needed relief was seen in areas of the Eastern Corn Belt. Although this week looks to finish out hot and dry, next week's forecast has shifted to look very favorable for major producing areas, with hot temperatures expected to finally break and beneficial rains now expected across most of the Midwest, putting pressure on corn and soybean markets.

U.S. national average gas prices have fallen to $4.44/gallon, representing their lowest level since May 12, though still well above years prior. This is an 11.5% drop in gas prices from their peak above $5.00 in mid-June, while spot WTI crude oil has fallen over 20% in the same span. Prices at the pump have remained elevated relative to volatile crude prices, though yesterday's DOE report showing weak gasoline demand and an unexpectedly-high 3.5 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks may be a sign of further downward pressure.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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