Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 22

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 22 Jul 2026, 16:03

July 22 – Stocks have turned mixed into midday, with the Dow Jones (+0.3%) leading the way higher, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.1%), while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (-0.1%) continues to hang narrowly in the red as traders brace for big tech earnings after today’s close. The VIX has cooled through the day to now sit in the red, hovering below 16.9 at the time of writing. The dollar remains quiet, off slightly on the day after back-to-back gains to start the week but still trading near 101.1, as it was this morning. Short-term treasury yields are surging, with 2-year yields at 4.30% for the first time since January 2025, while 10-year yields are seeing a smaller move, though still testing the 2026 high as they trade above 4.645%. Crude oil has pared gains into midday but remains in the green, with nearby WTI now up 1.8% on the day to trade near $86.10 and nearby Brent now up 2.4% on the day to trade near $93.20. The ags are mostly higher on the escalating situation in the Black Sea, save for the cattle complex where the ugly selloff is resuming.

Bloomberg is reporting that Maersk Ukraine is temporarily suspending service to Ukraine’s Chornomorsk Port until further notice due to “the current situation,” alluding to the ongoing Russian attacks on both vessels and port infrastructure. Import shipments destined for Chornomorsk are reportedly being redirected to Constanta, Romania, while export customers are reportedly being allowed to cancel bookings free of charge or switch their loading port to Constanta while keeping current ocean freight rates. This is yet another escalation in the deteriorating situation in the Black Sea, keeping a bid under the wheat complex specifically, but the broader grain and oilseed complex more broadly.

On top of the attacks on vessels and oil refineries, Ukraine has also ramped up its strikes on logistics facilities for Wildberries, Russia’s largest online retailer often described as the country’s equivalent of Amazon. Two more facilities were struck today, following multiple others being hit in recent days, starting over the weekend, with the Krasnodar facility today reportedly experiencing a large enough fire to require over 100 firefighters and an aviation unit to contain. Ukraine’s public justification for these strikes is the dual-use angle, with the company reportedly distributing sanctioned components for drone manufacturing, navigation equipment, and other military components. However, the other aspect worth keeping in mind here is the toll it may take on public support for Russia’s ongoing war effort. Ukraine’s ability to strike deeper and deeper inside Russia is part of a broader strategy of bringing the war closer to home for Russian civilians, and this is a prime example of that strategy evolving. These attacks have an impact on the daily life of Russian consumers, adding to growing frustrations amid previously reported fuel shortages and other issues, while also impacting Russian businesses at a time the government is already attempting to lean more heavily on the private sector for funding.

U.S. crude oil stocks excluding the SPR saw an unexpected build of 2.010 million barrels in the week ending July 17^th, sharply above the average analyst estimate of a million-plus-barrel weekly draw and marking only the second weekly build seen in the last three months. Gasoline stocks saw an unexpected weekly build as well, rising 0.765 million barrels week-over-week versus market expectations of a 1.517-million-barrel draw. This snaps a stretch of three consecutive weekly drops that put total U.S. gasoline stocks at an eight-month low in the week prior. Sticking with the theme of building stocks, U.S. distillate stocks saw a rise of 1.395 million barrels week-over-week, nearly doubling the anticipated build. This brings total U.S. distillate stocks to 109.570 million barrels, their highest level since mid-April. Meanwhile, refinery utilization ticked 0.1% lower to 96.1%, still slightly stronger than the expected 0.3% week-over-week decline.

Crude oil stocks in the SPR fell another 5.057 million barrels week-over-week, however, now sitting at only 311.447 million barrels, the lowest level seen since late March 1983. The U.S. has now seen 17 consecutive weekly draws from the SPR, with the cumulative total now surpassing the 100-million-barrel mark (103.995 million to be exact). The longer the escalations between the U.S. and Iran drag on, along with the downstream impact of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refining capacity (with no end in sight to either at present), the more this issue will come into focus.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Morning Grain Comments 8-5

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 11:54

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