Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 28 Jul 2026, 16:45

July 28 - Stocks firmed ahead of midday on Mideast peace talk hopes, even as tech investors remain wary of approaching earnings reports. The VIX is trading near 18 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 101.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.59%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.26%. WTI crude oil is trading near $78 per barrel, while Brent trades near $83 per barrel. Corn and soybean prices both recovered from overnight weakness to post double-digit gains at times for some contracts following yesterday afternoon's decline in crop ratings from USDA, as well as on strong demand dynamics, while wheat is trying to follow those markets higher.

Israeli media suggests that a deal may be close at hand to restore the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. President Trump halted strikes on Iran over the weekend to give diplomacy "a chance" after hitting it for 13 consecutive nights. The markets are reacting accordingly, with energy prices in decline on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea will be open for business again soon. Whether that is the case, or for how long that is the case, is yet to be seen. I personally hold out little hope for a longer-term peace plan, but President Trump would likely want to see low fuel prices ahead of the midterm election. Unfortunately, high gas and diesel prices have as much to do with the Ukraine war as they do the Middle East war, although those wars are increasingly connected.

USDA pegged the U.S. corn crop at 63% Good to Excellent yesterday, which is one point below the five-year average for the week, but 10 points below last year's level at this point in the season. For my model, I also include the categories of Fair, Poor, and Very Poor. The Good to Excellent correlates relatively well in most years, but the index that takes all five categories into account tends to correlate better in years when there are areas of problems, so that's what I use. My index has a base of 500 if it is a perfect crop - which never occurs. This week's crop rates a condition index score of 361, down 11 points on the week, and down 4 points from the average for the week covering the four decades that USDA has reported ratings. That drops my yield model 3.5 bushels on the week to 183.2 bushels per acre. That's very near to USDA's yield of 183.0 bushels per acre, but that yield should not be thought of as a true trend yield. A 30-year straight line trend yield that has served me well over the years is close to 184.8 bpa this year. I have seen at least one other popular model today that is followed by some fund managers that is still north of 187 bpa, as it is built more on other factors beyond the crop ratings. My yield model a year ago in the same week was at 188.2 bpa for comparisons sake.

USDA pegged the soybean crop at 63% Good to Excellent this week as well, but that is up 1 point from the five-year average for the week, although down 7 points from this same week last year. My condition index score for soybeans this week is at 363, down 6 points on the week, but up from the 40-year average for the week of 358. As such, my seasonally adjusted soybean yield model this week is at 53.4 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels from the previous week. A year ago in this same week my model posted a 54.1 bpa yield. My yield models do best when temperatures are "normal" in the month of August. They tend to overstate yields when August runs hotter than normal, speeding up grain fill, while they tend to understate yields in years when temperatures are below normal resulting in a longer grain fill period with larger seed size. Keep in mind that USDA's corn and soybean yields to this point are simply placeholder yields until NASS provides it with its first survey-based estimates in August.

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