Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 03 Jul 2025, 17:09

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Today's Perspective Video: Markets Brace for Trade Shifts, Tax Bill Drama & Tariff Fallout

July 3 - Stocks continue to push higher in anticipation of the tax bill passage, but the vote continues to be delayed by a marathon speech being given by House Minority Leader Jeffries. House rules allow party leadership their "magic minute" to comment on legislation for an unlimited amount of time after debate has concluded. The vote on the bill was scheduled for 5:30 a.m. this morning Eastern Time, but that was when Jeffries took the floor to begin his marathon comment period. The question now is, can he sustain his comments long enough to prevent President Trump from signing the bill - the Republicans say they have the votes to pass it - on Independence Day as he wishes. Meanwhile, Wall Street is assuming that one big piece of uncertainty is about to become certain. Businesses and consumers know that their taxes won't surge on January 1, giving them greater confidence to invest in expansion and long-term investments once they have greater certainty on the tariff front. We should know more about that next week.

Stocks are higher on the increased certainty, with the VIX trading near 16 at midday. The dollar index is trading near 97.2, or just above three-year lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.34%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.89%. Crude oil prices are pulling back by nearly 1% today, while the grain and oilseed markets are mixed to firmer. The markets will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day. The headlines will likely continue to flow, amid rumors that we could hear trade deals announced. Winter wheat harvest will continue as well, with some of those bushels being pushed onto the market due to high yields. That has the wheat market on defense going into the weekend, while corn and soybean short covering provide support for those markets. Corn and soybeans also find support from the expectation that Jeffries will eventually complete his marathon speech, with the Republicans having the votes to pass the tax bill that has some very good things within it for biofuels.

Exporters sold 21 million bushels of old-crop and 37 million bushels of new-crop corn in the week ending June 26, along with 17 million bushels of old-crop and 8.8 million bushels of new-crop soybeans, 21.5 million bushels of wheat, and 2.8 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date corn export sales total 2.681 billion bushels, up 566 million or 27% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 166 million bushels, and the gap continues to grow. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.835 billion bushels, up 193 million or 12% from the previous year's pace. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 2 million bushels, but the deficit is shrinking over the past couple of weeks. My bigger concern is new-crop soybean commitments. New crop corn commitments are typically relatively low in July, but new-crop soybean commitments tend to really ramp up in July as China books soybeans for delivery in the fourth quarter of the calendar year. Thus far zero soybeans are currently listed for China for the new-crop marketing year. The market will start to take notice of that over the next few weeks if we don't start hearing from China.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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