Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 17 Jun 2026, 16:35

Today's Perspective Video: China Soybean Rumors Return as Markets Rebound | Is Demand Finally Showing Up?

June 17 - The Dow put in a new intraday high today, while other stocks consolidated on the session as investors prepare for this afternoon's press conference and policy statement from the Federal Reserve. The VIX is trading near 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 99.7 in relatively quiet trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.07%. WTI crude oil prices are near $77 per barrel, while Brent trades near $80 per barrel as "value" buyers come back into the market as they assess longer-term supply risks. The grain and oilseed markets were mostly higher, with wheat leading the way with double-digit gains on weather concerns and end user buying.

Axios reports that the United States and Iran may move up the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the two to as early as today. It would be an electronic signing ceremony rather than in-person to speed up the process of getting the Strait of Hormuz opened up. That would also mean that we might actually see a copy of the agreement sooner rather than later.

The pending home sales index is based on contracts signed, which are expected to be a leading indicator to actual existing home sales this summer. The index rose 3.8% in May, up from analyst expectations of 0.9% growth. The April number was revised to 0.3% growth, down from the 1.4% originally reported. This does suggest that we're starting to see some movement in existing home movement. The National Association of Realtors indicated that, "A late spring buyer rush - even with mortgage rates not budging - is an indication of pent-up demand and consumers acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal." It also noted that more supply is needed to moderate home price rises.

Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 8.3 million in the week ending June 12 to 418.2 million barrels. That puts stocks roughly 6% below the five-year average for mid-June. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to 340 million barrels, down 9 million from the previous week. Gasoline stocks dropped by 0.9 million barrels on the week, also putting them 6% below seasonal levels. Distillate supplies rose by 1.0 million barrels, leaving them 13% below typical levels for mid-June. Crude oil stocks continue to decline due to strong U.S. exports amid the global supply deficit caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ethanol stocks were unchanged on the week at 24.5 million barrels, up modestly from 24.1 million barrels a year ago. The production of ethanol fell slightly to 1,102K barrels per day in the week ending June 12, down from 1,108K bpd the previous week, and down from 1,109K bpd in the same week last year. The production of fuel ethanol utilized an estimated 104.0 million bushels of corn last week, down from 104.5 million bushels the previous week, and down from 105.5 million bushels in the same week last year. Estimated corn use for ethanol for the marketing year to date totals 4.288 billion bushels, up 22 million bushels from the previous year's pace, but still 47 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Longer-term, the ethanol industry continues to look for more demand sources. One of those is the maritime industry. Farm Progress reports that the world's shipping industry is turning to ethanol as a cleaner alternative fuel. Capturing just 5% of that demand would increase ethanol consumption by 4 to 5 billion gallons, adding roughly 1.5 billion bushels of demand for corn. Commercial ethanol bunkering is expected to be built in Singapore and Brazil's Santos port, as well as other places, over the next one to two years.

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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