Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 29 Jun 2026, 16:40

June 29 - The major stock indices continue to post gains at midday, as we approach the end of the month, end of the fiscal quarter, and as we approach Thursday big jobs report. The VIX slipped below 18 midday, while the dollar index trades near 101.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38% in quiet trade, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.11%. WTI crude oil continues to firm amid the tensions in the Middle East, trading near $71 per barrel at midday, while Brent trades near $73 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly weaker at midday, with active selling pressuring corn and soybean futures into double-digit losses.

Buyers backed away from the grain and oilseed markets ahead of tomorrow's big USDA quarterly grain stocks and planted acreage reports. Trade expectations are that we may see corn acreage drop a little, but overall acreage will likely see modest increases amid a generally favorable spring planting season in which the Iran war helped propel corn and soybean futures to profitable levels. The quarterly grain stocks report is also expected to remind traders that we have ample supplies, and the this week's heat ridge in the Midwest looks transitory in nature. The heat helps the crops catch up on heat units near-term, but then a more mild showery pattern returns for pollination.

USDA inspected 70.3 million bushels of corn in the week ending June 25, as shown below, along with 15.4 million bushels of soybeans, 13.2 million bushels of wheat, and 6.7 million bushels of grain sorghum. USDA inspections specifically for shipment to China last week included 6.7 million bushels of grain sorghum and 2.4 million bushels of soybeans. The cargo of soybeans included brings total inspections for the marketing year to within 4 million bushels of China's 12 million metric ton commitment. I expect us to go over that 12 mmt mark for U.S. soybean imports due to the container shipped identify preserved soybeans that private buyers purchase that are above and beyond what Sinograin purchased. That said, additional large cargos of soybeans to China over the next two months should be rather limited.

The wheat marketing year started on June 1, but we're close to the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for this year. The marketing years for grain sorghum, corn and soybeans expire August 31. Marketing year grain sorghum export inspections are also very close to the pace needed to hit USDA's target at this point. The pace picked up again for corn shipments last week with the third largest weekly inspection total since early April. That brought marketing year to date export inspections to 2.712 billion bushels, up 548 million bushels or 25% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 167 million bushels, up from 159 million bushels the previous week. I look for USDA to increase its corn export target by another 50 million bushels in the July report next week.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.370 billion bushels, down 316 million bushels or 19% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 59 million bushels, up from 53 million bushels the previous week. Pending tomorrow's stocks report, USDA likely needs to add 20 million bushels to both its soybean crush and export targets, dropping its ending stocks estimate for this year closer to the psychological 300 million bushel mark. That wouldn't mean that we would run out of soybeans ahead of this year's harvest, but it would reduce the beginning stocks estimate for the 2026-27 marketing year.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 2

July 2 – It’s a tale of two extremes on Wall Street at midday, with the lower rate expectations following this morning’s ugly jobs print providing tailwinds to drive the Dow Jones to another fresh all-time high and remain in the green (+0.5%) at the time of writing, while the ugly selloff in the tech sector is driving the Nasdaq sharply lower (-2.1%), leaving the S&P caught in the middle (-0.6%). The VIX remains relatively muted, up from the morning lows but still on the low side of recent ranges as it hovers around 16.7. The dollar continues to hang in the red amid the aforementioned shift down in rate expectations, though it has bounced from its lows as it currently hangs around the 100.8 level. Treasuries are mixed at midday as well, with 10-year yields up on the day to 4.48% while 2-year yields are down on the day to trade near 4.13%. Crude oil has rebounded through the session as well, with nearby WTI now slightly in the green around $68.20 while nearby Brent remains slightly in the red near $71.20. The ags have lost steam through the session, now trading largely mixed after erasing morning gains.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 2

July 2 – All eyes are on the labor market to start the day, with the Friday holiday pushing June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report up to the same day, and release time, as weekly Jobless Claims. It was a very ugly headline print for Non-Farm Payrolls with only 57k jobs added in June, effectively only half of the expected 110k. To make matters worse, both April and May were revised lower by 31k and 43k, respectively, to now show a combined 277k jobs added instead of 351k. Despite this negativity, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from the 4.3% seen from March through May, representing the lowest headline unemployment reading since June of last year. However, the drop was largely a function of a collapsing labor force participation rate, falling 0.3% month-over-month to sit at only 61.5% in June, a low not seen since March 2021 during the pandemic recovery. Average hourly earnings came in as expected, up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, as did the average workweek at 34.3 hours.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 13:24

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Grains & Oilseeds

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