Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 30

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 30 Jun 2026, 16:42

June 30 - The tech sector led stocks higher this morning, with Wall Street on the cusp of its strongest quarter in years, despite the war with Iran. The VIX is trading near 17 at midday, while the dollar index trades near 101.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.12%. WTI crude oil is trading near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $73 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector is reacting to today's set of USDA reports on product inventories and planted acreage.

Consumer confidence inched higher in June as Iran and the United States reached a ceasefire. Falling oil prices helped to give a bump to confidence, although consumer worries about the job sector rebounded to their highest level since January 2021, while anticipating little improvement by the end of the year. The consumer confidence index rose to 91.2 for June, up from a downwardly revised 90.6 in May. The present situation index dropped 3 points to 116.4. The expectations index jumped by 3 points to 74.4. The survey period stretched from June 1 to 23. Confidence remained the highest among those under 35 years of age, while it was little changed across income groups. Ironically, confidence improved among independents and Democrats as the Middle East ceasefire was enacted, while it softened among Republicans. Consumers generally expect interest rates to remain elevated over the coming year, but they expect similar strength in stock prices.

USDA pegged June 1 corn stocks at 5.295 billion bushels, up 652 million bushels from the previous year, but 113 million bushels less than the trade expected. This follows a bullish surprise in March as well, providing some confirmation that USDA likely overstated the size of last year's corn crop - perhaps by 2+ bushels per acre. The problem is, USDA may be too proud to admit that. Assuming though that it does lower the size of last year's crop, it won't do so before September 30 when the focus is on this year's harvest. As such, the only way to account for the lost bushels is in higher feed and residual use, but that category is already higher than what can be justified based on historical patterns. This year's corn acres were essentially unchanged from March, when a decline was expected.

The biggest surprise was in a million-acre decline in wheat acres. Most of that was for winter wheat, but spring wheat and durum both declined as well. Soybean acreage rose by 665K acres from the March survey, but that essentially matched trade expectations and was largely priced into the market. Soybean stocks came in 15 million bushels larger than expected, but the market largely ignored that. Algo trading immediately took everything higher for the grain and oilseeds, but now prices are coming off highs as the human element trades. Weather now increases as a factor going forward.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 2

July 2 – It’s a tale of two extremes on Wall Street at midday, with the lower rate expectations following this morning’s ugly jobs print providing tailwinds to drive the Dow Jones to another fresh all-time high and remain in the green (+0.5%) at the time of writing, while the ugly selloff in the tech sector is driving the Nasdaq sharply lower (-2.1%), leaving the S&P caught in the middle (-0.6%). The VIX remains relatively muted, up from the morning lows but still on the low side of recent ranges as it hovers around 16.7. The dollar continues to hang in the red amid the aforementioned shift down in rate expectations, though it has bounced from its lows as it currently hangs around the 100.8 level. Treasuries are mixed at midday as well, with 10-year yields up on the day to 4.48% while 2-year yields are down on the day to trade near 4.13%. Crude oil has rebounded through the session as well, with nearby WTI now slightly in the green around $68.20 while nearby Brent remains slightly in the red near $71.20. The ags have lost steam through the session, now trading largely mixed after erasing morning gains.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 2

July 2 – All eyes are on the labor market to start the day, with the Friday holiday pushing June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report up to the same day, and release time, as weekly Jobless Claims. It was a very ugly headline print for Non-Farm Payrolls with only 57k jobs added in June, effectively only half of the expected 110k. To make matters worse, both April and May were revised lower by 31k and 43k, respectively, to now show a combined 277k jobs added instead of 351k. Despite this negativity, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from the 4.3% seen from March through May, representing the lowest headline unemployment reading since June of last year. However, the drop was largely a function of a collapsing labor force participation rate, falling 0.3% month-over-month to sit at only 61.5% in June, a low not seen since March 2021 during the pandemic recovery. Average hourly earnings came in as expected, up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, as did the average workweek at 34.3 hours.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 13:24

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Grains & Oilseeds

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