Afternoon Grain Market Snapshot 6-9
Afternoon Grain Market Snapshot - news, funds, closing prices, end user values
Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 9
By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
June 9 - The tech sector quickly pulled stocks under as the morning progressed today. That's where much of the momentum has been of late, but investors also seem to be making room for some big IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) coming, including the SpaceX highly-anticipated $1.75 trillion debut on Friday. Additional headwinds come from the anticipated release of consumer inflation data tomorrow morning. On the other hand, traders received more good news on the housing front today from better-than-expected existing home sales in May.
President Trump posted on his Truth Social account a few minutes ago confirmation that Iran had shot down a U.S. Apache Helicopter that was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz last night. Both pilots were rescued by a U.S. drone within two hours of the incident, and they are relatively uninjured. "Nevertheless, the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack," stated Trump. Crude oil prices immediately surged several dollars over the next couple of minutes following that post before pulling back a bit. Stocks added to their weakness. The fear is that this incident will result in a return to fierce fighting between Iran and the United States in the days ahead.
Stocks are still sliding at this hour, with the VIX rising to fresh nine-week highs to trade near 23. The dollar index is trading near 100.0 as Treasury yields trade near their session lows ahead of tomorrow's inflation data. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.54%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14%. Crude oil prices were down roughly 4% after data showed that Chinese imports fell to eight-year lows last month, which is part of what has helped the world cope with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $88 per barrel, while Brent trades near $91 per barrel. Corn and wheat prices found value buyers supporting the market today after the recent collapse hit chart objectives just ahead of Thursday's USDA WASDE crop report, while soybean prices were under modest pressure. Brazil farmers are selling soybeans after fresh Chinese buying brought a pop to Brazil basis over the past two or three days. China appeared to be taking advantage of the break in Chicago futures to purchase Brazilian soybeans, that are priced against the Chicago market.
The edible oils markets have been the bright spot in the grain and oilseed sector. Strong demand for feedstock for the production of biomass diesel lies behind the relative stability. Palm oil, canola oil and soybean oil have all held their recent trading ranges through the selloff in the corn, soybean and wheat markets. That helps make soybean crush margins that much more profitable, incentivizing even more crush going forward. Biomass diesel production facilities are generally seeing strong margins to incentivize production, along with soybean crush facilities. That strength in domestic demand is then measured against nearly ideal growing conditions unfolding for this year's Midwest crops, and the big question about what Chinese buying we may or may not see, as I've outlined in previous commentaries.
This week's winter wheat condition index score is 263, which is the lowest on record for the crop for this week of the year. This week's index is down from 269 the previous week, down from 341 in the same week last year, and down from the 10-year average for the week of 327. The lowest score this week comes from Nebraska at 170, followed by Colorado at 211, Oklahoma at 219, Texas at 223, and Kansas at 231. No harvest has occurred in Colorado or Nebraska yet, while just 5% has been harvested in Kansas. However, 44% of Oklahoma and 35% of Texas is harvested. Sharply lower ratings in Oklahoma during active harvest suggests that yields are below already low expectations.
- Grains & Oilseeds
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Matt Zeller
- Grains & Oilseeds
Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for June 9
June 9 - The tech sector quickly pulled stocks under as the morning progressed today. That's where much of the momentum has been of late, but investors also seem to be making room for some big IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) coming, including the SpaceX highly-anticipated $1.75 trillion debut on Friday. Additional headwinds come from the anticipated release of consumer inflation data tomorrow morning. On the other hand, traders received more good news on the housing front today from better-than-expected existing home sales in May.
Arlan Suderman
- Grains & Oilseeds
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