Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 10 Mar 2023, 16:21

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

March 10 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day, with the Dow Jones clinging to small gains while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fade. The VIX has rallied significantly this morning, pushing all the way above 25 at times and reflecting elevated fear levels on Wall Street over concerns of the health of the banking sector. The U.S. dollar is tumbling further after yesterday's losses, trading near 104.1 at the time of writing. Treasuries are also under pressure, with 10-year yields falling to 3.71% while 2-year yields drop to trade near 4.68%. Crude oil is looking to stop the week's bleeding, with the nearby WTI contract clinging to small gains just under $76, while the ags are largely mixed.

Bank stocks are under pressure today, dragged down by concern's over the financial health of SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank). The company's stock fell by over 60% yesterday, making lows not seen since 2016, and its shares were halted this morning after falling even more aggressively in pre-market trading. Much of the company's lending is to the tech sector, so it's not a huge surprise to see them caught up in the fallout of the sector's recent struggles. After launching a failed bid to raise capital earlier this week, there have been numerous reports of clients rapidly withdrawing their money from SVB. The weakness has spilled over elsewhere in the banking sector, with the S&P 500 Banks Index dropping 6.6% yesterday and falling further this morning. The spillover is also making its way out of the U.S., with stocks of major European banks taking a hit as well. While the economy has held up surprisingly well amid the Fed's rapid rate hikes, there have been cracks starting to show in individual sectors, and some fear this could be a sign of things to come in the banking sector.

China has helped play power broker in re-establishing diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with a joint announcement coming from the three countries on Friday following four days of previously under wraps talks in Beijing. The two Middle Eastern powers have long been at odds with one another and formally cut ties back in 2016 when the Saudi Arabian embassy in Iran's capital was violently stormed. Since then, the two have backed opposite sides in proxy wars in Yemen, Syria, and other places. Saudi Arabia has also accused Iran of attacking oil facilities in the country as well as tankers in the gulfs separating the two, which Iran has denied. With global geopolitical tensions continuing to rise, it's been interesting to keep an eye on those taking sides. China has been doing its best to spread its influence both in the Middle East and elsewhere around the world, with the goal of countering the U.S. With Saudi Arabia and Iran both interested in joining the growing BRICS alliance (currently Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), this could be a sign of more future trade being done outside of U.S. influence. Several other countries have also expressed their interest in joining, adding to the ongoing game of choosing sides.

The U.N. Secretary General arrived in Ukraine yesterday to meet with Ukrainian president Zelensky in order to discuss the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor that is now set to expire a week from tomorrow. Russia is reportedly resistant again, as they were back at the initial deal's renewal in November, saying that they want their own ag and fertilizer exports to be included in the initiative. Ukraine has also asked to include Mykolaiv, their former #2 port, to the deal in order to speed up their own exports that have been slowed by slow-walked Russian inspections. Markets have remained optimistic that a deal will get done, though the risk is still clearly present with the two sides digging in further for intensifying fighting in Ukraine's east. Regardless, we'll likely know more next week as the deadline approaches.

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