Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 15 Mar 2022, 16:29

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 15 - Stocks rallied notably today ahead of tomorrow's anticipated statement from the Federal Reserve, while crude oil fell to levels not seen since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as Covid lockdowns reduce demand from China. The VIX is trading near 31 at midday, while the dollar index is trading near 99.0, and yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.12%. Crude oil prices are nearly 6% lower, while the Ags are mixed. The wheat market calmed today - trading just over a half-dollar range thus far - but found strength as the poster-child for inflation hedging amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Today's February NOPA crush total came in at 165 million bushels as expected today, with prices consolidating lower just below their recent highs. Corn prices are caught between the two. Corn and soybean prices are largely chopping sideways waiting for greater clarity from Argentina next month, while April is also the pivotal month for weather for Brazil's safrinha corn crop. The protein complex was also in consolidation mode today, with a bit of a weaker bias.

The war in Ukraine is in its 20th day, and the land that Russia controls is currently a relatively a relatively small proportion of the total country. Ukraine is roughly the size of Texas in area. Russia's strategy appears to be to gain control of the ports along the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, while also encircling and controlling the capital city of Kyiv. Russia appears to have found much more resistance than it expected, and it may not have the resources necessary to conquer and to occupy the land. But, getting control of the ports and the capital city would put it in a stronger negotiating position. Ukrainian leaders stated today that they believe that Russia has the resources to sustain fighting at current levels another 10 days to two weeks, and that this could be over by May at the latest. I don't know if that's true, or if that's rhetoric meant to give courage to its troops.

But the question at hand for our purposes here today is, under a best-case scenario, how much crops can Ukraine produce and export this year? Local sources in the area remain optimistic that they can still produce 60% of normal production, plus/minus. That number will likely go down each week that the war continues. Keep in mind that the agricultural industry tends to be made up of optimists. It's that nature that helps it overcome the obstacles of time. We are less optimistic about Ukraine's 2022 production. Yes, the Ukraine government set aside 25 billion Hryvnias to subsidize this year's production, but will it be able to deliver that aid when/where it is needed? A large portion of the farmers joined the war effort over the past three weeks, while fuel supplies have gone in that direction as well. Ukraine's infrastructure continues to suffer via the Russian assault. Farmers would do what they could, if the war ended today, but we currently expect Ukraine's contribution to global production to be minimal in 2022, with exportable supplies even smaller.

Russia's attack on Ukraine continues into its 20th day. SOURCE: The Daily Mail

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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