Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 17 Mar 2023, 15:31

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Matt Zeller

Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

March 17 - The Dow Jones Industrials are off over 400 points as of the time of this writing, with bank shares of First Republic and Credit Suisse leading the way lower. The country's largest lenders boosted First Republic yesterday with $30 billion in uninsured deposits but reality is settling back in today, with that risk now spread around to the big banks and dominoes very likely to keep falling in the current bank run. The same reality is looming for Credit Suisse, which got help from the Swiss Central Bank yesterday, but that's only seen as a band-aid by the market, on an institution plagued with bad hedge fund bets and scandals in recent years. At any rate, investors are on edge across the globe as this situation plays out through the end of the day today and into the Fed meeting next week.

United States Industrial Production was flat month-over month in February, compared to the average trade estimate of a +0.2% gain; the previous month's figure was revised higher from 0.0% to a +0.3%, however. U.S. Capacity Utilization also fell short of expectations at 78.0% in Feb, below the 78.4% guess, with Jan utilization revised lower from 78.3% to 78.0% as well. Neither are a great sign for the U.S. manufacturing industry, as producers scale back output with consumer spending patterns hit by rising interest rates. The Conference Board's U.S. leading index fell by 0.3% in February as well, matching January's month-over-month change with the index now down to 110.0 points after almost a full year of declines. Finally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 63.4 points for March, down from 67.0 points both as an average trade guess and in Feb; that was the first decline in their reading after three months of gains. Bank failures are likely to weigh on that sentiment even further in subsequent readings for the month.

The U.S. dollar index is sliding for the second straight day with the U.S. government stepping in to prop up failing banks and ease overall marketplace fears, but that hasn't been much help to a commodity sector that has taken a hit in recent days/weeks/months right alongside key component WTI crude oil. Crude fell below $70 per barrel in New York for the first time since late 2021 and it's headed for its worst weekly drop in almost a year as well, with the market facing its worst banking sector issues since the 2008 financial crisis. Speculative money is thin in the grain sector as well, after funds dumped almost their entire net long position in corn over the past month. Investor focus remains on interest rates and the outside markets, especially now with the Fed meeting next week and expectations for rate hikes scaled back. Fundamentally, this is a thin period for the grains until the March 31 planting intentions and quarterly stocks numbers, though we have seen China step in to buy some U.S. corn after the 75-cent drop. The bulls will need to continue to be fed, however, which is a tough ask considering the overall state of corn demand at this point in the season.

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