Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for March 31

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 31 Mar 2026, 16:37

Today's Perspective Video: EPA's Biofuel Rules are Bullish Feedstock Demand

March 31 - The Iran war, and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to be the driving force on Wall Street. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated today that the next few days would be decisive in the war with Iran, raising the prospect that we could either see peace or escalation of the conflict very soon. Yet, it's also the end of the month and the end of the quarter, leading to book squaring that distorts market movement at times. The VIX eased closer to 27 at midday, reflecting elevated but easing anxiety on Wall Street, while the dollar index backed off of yesterday's 10-month highs to trade near 100.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.79%. WTI crude oil prices are trading close to $104 per barrel, while Brent is trading near $119. The grain and oilseed markets generally saw increased positive money flow in recent weeks, but today they are trading USDA's quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions reports that were just released.

USDA reports that its 2026 planting intentions survey pegged this year's corn acres at 95.338 million, soybeans at 84.700 million, and all wheat at 43.775 million acres. That total came in about a million acres less than expected, with soybeans and wheat coming in short of trade expectations, while corn came in higher. If there was going to be a surprise in this report, that's the way it would have been expected. As such, that is likely what the market anticipated.

USDA will publish its first WASDE balance sheets for the 2026/27 marketing year on May 12. It typically uses the corn and soybean yields from its trend yield published at the Outlook Forum in February, and then uses the planted acreage numbers from today's report. That essentially gives us the supply side of the balance sheet. My estimates would put the corn crop at 15.9 billion bushels, down 1.1 billion from last year's crop. Assuming similar demand, it would drop stocks below 2 billion bushels, but remain adequate to meet that anticipated demand, although with little margin for error if a weather problem develops. The debate will be whether the corn acreage comes down and soybean acreage goes up due to the effect of the war on fertilizer prices and the good news that soybeans received from the EPA on biofuel production last Friday? The corn stocks number came in below expectations, suggesting that USDA overstated the size of last year's crop IF this tendency is confirmed in the next couple of stocks reports.

The lower wheat acreage fits with what we've seen, and with a global trend. The global shortage of nitrogen fertilizer created when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz amplifies this trend toward lower global production, although the U.S. is still well supplied. The lower than expected soybean acreage leaves us with adequate supplies with the current biofuel program IF China buys 12 mmt in the coming year, but buying 25 mmt would leave us short, requiring more acres.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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