Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 15 May 2026, 16:23

Today's Perspective Video: Grain Markets Slide Despite Bullish USDA Data

May 15 - Treasury yields continue to surge to close out the week, reflecting concerns about rising inflation pressures, as well as rising public debt pressures. That led to a lower open for most stocks this morning, but then those stocks tended to chop sideways through the morning. Nonetheless, that leaves them in negative territory at midday. The VIX eased back to trade near 18 again as stock values stabilized, while the dollar index firmed to trade near 99.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near a one-year high of 4.59%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.08%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $105 per barrel, while Brent trades near $110 per barrel. Soybean meal prices popped higher this morning on an announced export sale to Italy, but then prices settled back closer to unchanged, allowing soybean oil prices to firm ahead of today's NOPA crush report. Meanwhile, wheat prices posted big losses, along with double-digit losses in soybeans and corn as well. Disappointment in the lack of a tangible deal with China was blamed, but much of this is about a reversal of money flow amid changing chart signals, with buyers content to allow prices to come to them.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 19.6 for May, up from 11.0 previously, and its highest level in more than four years. An index above zero reflects month-on-month expansion. Both new orders and shipments increased considerably for the second consecutive month, while unfilled orders began to rise as well. Delivery times lengthened substantially according to the New York Federal Reserve, while supply availability deteriorated. Both employment levels and the average workweek continued to increase in the New York Fed District. The pace of both input price increases and selling price increases picked up sharply, with firms growing more optimistic about the business outlook. Other data released today showed that U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% on the month in April, after contracting by 0.3% in March. Analysts had expected just 0.2% growth. Manufacturing output rose by 0.6% on the month in April, versus an upwardly revised 0.1% pace in March, and amid analyst expectations of 0.1% in April. Capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April, up from 75.7% in March and above expectations of 75.8%. The economic data coming in over the past couple of weeks continues to reflect solid growth in the economy.

Yet, it is the Iran conflict that continues to put that upward pressure on inflation as energy prices rise. Fertilizer has a similar story, but that's more of a story for 2027 when we believe that it could become a substantial story globally. WTI crude oil prices rallied to their highest level since May 4th today amid signals that President Trump is losing patience with Iran, and the market ponders whether he might step up attacks on Iran again, now that he has returned from Beijing where President Xi gave the appearance of supporting his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. A meeting of BRICS foreign ministers failed to provide a united statement condemning the United States, with its members currently divided on their views. Iran is a member of BRICS and it was pushing for that statement.

The National Oilseed Processors Association reports that its members crushed 211.9 million bushels of soybeans in April, its lowest total since September as many crushers took down time for maintenance following several months of record output. NOPA crush typically accounts for more than 97% of all crush in today's world. Marketing year to date NOPA crush exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA' current crush target for the year by 54 million bushels. The graphic below shows how that crush pace historically has tended to slow in the summer as soybean supplies tighten. However, crush margins remain near record high levels for the summer, suggesting that we'll continue to see a strong crush pace.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 2

July 2 – It’s a tale of two extremes on Wall Street at midday, with the lower rate expectations following this morning’s ugly jobs print providing tailwinds to drive the Dow Jones to another fresh all-time high and remain in the green (+0.5%) at the time of writing, while the ugly selloff in the tech sector is driving the Nasdaq sharply lower (-2.1%), leaving the S&P caught in the middle (-0.6%). The VIX remains relatively muted, up from the morning lows but still on the low side of recent ranges as it hovers around 16.7. The dollar continues to hang in the red amid the aforementioned shift down in rate expectations, though it has bounced from its lows as it currently hangs around the 100.8 level. Treasuries are mixed at midday as well, with 10-year yields up on the day to 4.48% while 2-year yields are down on the day to trade near 4.13%. Crude oil has rebounded through the session as well, with nearby WTI now slightly in the green around $68.20 while nearby Brent remains slightly in the red near $71.20. The ags have lost steam through the session, now trading largely mixed after erasing morning gains.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 2

July 2 – All eyes are on the labor market to start the day, with the Friday holiday pushing June’s Non-Farm Payrolls report up to the same day, and release time, as weekly Jobless Claims. It was a very ugly headline print for Non-Farm Payrolls with only 57k jobs added in June, effectively only half of the expected 110k. To make matters worse, both April and May were revised lower by 31k and 43k, respectively, to now show a combined 277k jobs added instead of 351k. Despite this negativity, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% from the 4.3% seen from March through May, representing the lowest headline unemployment reading since June of last year. However, the drop was largely a function of a collapsing labor force participation rate, falling 0.3% month-over-month to sit at only 61.5% in June, a low not seen since March 2021 during the pandemic recovery. Average hourly earnings came in as expected, up 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year, as did the average workweek at 34.3 hours.

Mike CastleThu, 02 Jul 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 7-2

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 02 Jul 2026, 11:55

Grains & Oilseeds

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