Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 26 May 2026, 17:05

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Peace Talks Pressure Corn, Soybeans & Wheat, For Now

May 26 - All three major stock indices started the day in record territory, before backing off their highs late in the morning, with the Dow slipping into modest losses. Hopes for peace in the Middle East softened when the United States confirmed that it had made defensive strikes on Iran - missile/drone launchers and boats putting mines in the water. The VIX firmed back above 17 as stocks eased back, while the dollar index trades near 99.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries came off their lows to trade near 4.50% at midday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.07%. WTI crude oil remains in negative territory as it trades near $94 per barrel, while Brent trades near $100 per barrel. The edible oils firmed into positive territory through the morning, while spring wheat prices firmed as well as dryness and heat build in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies, but the remainder of the grain and oilseed markets remained in negative territory.

USDA inspected 62.3 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending May 21, as shown below, along with 21.0 million bushels of soybeans, 13.5 million bushels of wheat, and 0.1 million bushels of grain sorghum. The grain sorghum was shipped primarily to China, while 5.0 million bushels of the inspected soybeans were destined for China. Otherwise, very little was inspected during the week for shipment to China. It's been nearly two weeks since President Trump traveled to Beijing, where China made the commitment to buy $17 billion in Ag products on top of the previous commitments to buy soybeans. We've had scattered purchases of sales to unknown destinations, but thus far no confirmation that those or any other purchases were made by China.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections for shipment to all destinations total a record pace of 2.369 billion bushels, up 519 million bushels or 28% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 206 million bushels, but that gap continues to shrink. This year's record large corn exports are largely due to a strong front-loaded export season. The weekly shipment pace remains strong relative to past years, but it has fallen beyond the strong early pace that built early momentum. Yet, recent strong sales suggest that we should have a solid finish for the marketing year. Mexico has become an active buyer of both old- and new-crop corn, while we've seen more sales to unknown destinations as well for both old- and new-crop corn. Some buyers appear to be front loading purchases for next year on the fear that a global fertilizer shortage in 2027 could curtail corn production next year. As such, I still believe an argument can be made for another increase in the current year's export target of 50 to 75 million bushels.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections for shipment to all destinations total a six-year low for this time of year at 1.291 billion bushels, down 339 million bushels or 21% from the previous year's pace. The total actually now exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 16 million bushels, after matching the pace a week ago. The recent strong shipment pace - relative to the seasonal norm - is more broad-based than I expected, considering the volume of cheaper soybeans available from Brazil. That appears to be more of a shipping capacity issue, as we know that China has large volumes of monthly shipments scheduled from Brazil utilizing port space. That suggests that we could finish the marketing year a bit stronger than I had anticipated. Only about 24 million bushels of unshipped Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans remain on the books for delivery over the next three months, but plenty of other non-China business remains.

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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