Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 27

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Wed, 27 May 2026, 16:15

May 27 – The White House called today’s Iranian state TV report regarding agreement on a memorandum of understanding a “complete fabrication,” causing stocks to pare morning gains and crude oil to pare morning losses. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are now in the red at midday, though the Dow Jones is clinging to small (+0.3%) gains; all remain near their recent all-time highs. The VIX remains quite muted, holding right at unchanged on the day at the time of writing as it trades near 17. The dollar is having a quiet day as well, remaining in the middle of its recent range as it trades just above the 99.2 level. Treasuries are just below unchanged on the day, with 10-year yields falling back below 4.49% and 2-year yields just below 4.04%. Crude oil remains in the red on the day, though it has bounced from morning lows following pushback from the U.S. in regards to an imminent peace deal, with nearby WTI back above $90 after briefly dipping to a month-plus low below the $88 mark, while nearby Brent futures trade near $93.50 at the time of writing after pushing as low as $91.75 earlier in the session. The ags are largely mixed at midday, with the grains mostly lower but the soy and protein complexes pushing higher.

Mortgage rates in the U.S. continue to push higher, with the Mortgage Bankers Association of America (MBA) showing average 30-year rates rising to 6.65% in the week ending May 22^nd, up from 6.56% in the week prior and marking a nine-month high. Mortgage rates had been trending lower through the latter half of 2025 and beginning of 2026, bottoming out at 6.09% in late February but rallying since, with this morning’s print marking the fifth consecutive weekly increase. This uptick led to an 8.3% weekly decline in overall mortgage applications, the sharpest drop seen since late March. The overall drop was a combination of a sharp 18.1% week-over-week drop in refinancing applications to their lowest level since late July, being partially offset by a much slighter 0.4% decline in new purchase applications. The housing sector has shown some signs of life recently amid a sluggish stretch in recent years; it will be interesting to see how the recent uptick in rates translates into realized demand changes moving forward. More housing data is on tap in the near-term, with April Building Permits and New Home Sales data both due out tomorrow morning.

The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to impress, with this morning’s Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index surging to a strong expansionary reading of 13 in May, sharply above expectations of a modest improvement to 4 and marking the highest level for the metric since December 2021. This also marks the third consecutive month in expansionary territory for the index, the first time that has happened since the same stretch in late 2021 and ending a streak of 12 consecutive months in contraction. Much of this strength was driven by a surge in new orders, rising to 17 from the 8 seen in April, as well as shipments, rising to 16 in May from a contractionary -2 in April and marking a high not seen since June 2021.

The service sector remains less rosy, though the headline Services Index from the Richmond Fed did show its strongest expansion since December 2024 with a reading of 14, up from 9 in April and well above market expectations of a slight dip back to 8. That headline positivity did mask a bit of concern, however, with the services employment subindex falling back into contraction, though slightly at -1, after showing a strong reading of 6 seen in April. Elsewhere, the Dallas Fed’s General Business Activity Index for the service sector remained squarely in contractionary territory at -7.7 in May, though it is worth noting that’s a continued improvement from the -9.9 seen in April and -13.3 seen in March. Additionally, the Dallas Fed’s Services Revenue Index showed its strongest print since January, rising to 5 in May from the 4.3 seen in April, marking the fifth consecutive month in expansionary territory. Digging in a little deeper in the context of the Fed’s dual mandate, there are certainly still some concerning signs present, with the employment subindex falling deeper into contraction (-3.2 vs. -1 in April) and input price pressures remaining quite elevated, though improving modestly from the month prior (29.7 in May vs. 31.2 in April).

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell to a record low for the comparable week at only 26% good/excellent on yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, down another 1% week-on-week, while the share rated poor/very poor rose by 1% to now sit at 44%, the highest for the comparable week since 2014. The worst issues continue to center in the heart of the U.S. hard red winter wheat belt on the Plains, though this week’s national decline was driven more by drops elsewhere (MT -7%, ID/MI/WA -6%, OR -4%, IL -3%). The market doesn’t seem to care much today, given the ugly selloff in the wheat complex as it continues to follow crude oil downward. We should have clearer expectations for the size of the U.S. hard red crop very soon, with maturity running well ahead of schedule on the Southern Plains given this year’s dryness, but weekend rains and more in the forecast may keep combines out of the field near-term.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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