Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 04 May 2023, 15:56

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Please note: there will be no Midday Commentary tomorrow.

May 4 - Stocks are squarely in the red at mid-day, while the VIX pushes back into the 20's (reached as high as 21.3) for the first time since late March amid rising fears on Wall Street. The dollar has risen through the morning to reach 101.3 as it looks to stop its recent skid. Treasuries are pushing lower, with 10-year yields trading below 3.33% while 2-year yields sink to 3.75%. Crude oil is still in the red, though well off overnight lows, with the nearby WTI contract trading around $68.50 at the time of writing. The ags are now mixed at mid-day, with the wheat and cattle complexes rallying to push higher after starting the day in the red.

Banking sector fears are weighing on the market yet again today, with PacWest Bancorp's stock plunging 60% from the day prior after giving confirmation to reports that the company is weighing its "strategic options" with potential partners and investors and sparking fears of another regional bank failure. The company's stock has now shed close to 90% of its value since Silicon Valley Bank's failure sparked fears for the sector in early March. This downward pressure is spilling over elsewhere in the sector, with shares of Comerica and Zions Bancorp both down around 15% at the time of writing. First Horizon Corp's shares are also under serious pressure today, down roughly 40%, following the announcement that TD Bank had terminated their agreement to take the company over. Despite attempts to assure the market that the worst is over, including comments yesterday from Jerome Powell, it seems the jitters of the banking sector are here to stay for the time being.

Russian diplomat Dmitry Peskov accused the U.S. of being behind the attempted drone attack on the Kremlin this week without providing any evidence, following yesterday's claim that Ukraine was to blame. Peskov baselessly said that Russia knows decisions about such actions are "made not in Kyiv but in Washington." This follows Russia's continued attempt to place blame on direct U.S. involvement for their struggles with Ukraine. Russia continues to ramp up their resumption of strikes far from the frontlines, with Ukraine's top Black Sea port city of Odesa being hit early this morning. It's an interesting time for Russia to be targeting the port city with the May 18 deadline for renewing the Black Sea export corridor deal looming. Top U.N. trade officials are set to travel to Moscow on Friday to continue negotiations over the deal's renewal, though Russian officials still claim they need their demands met to do so in what still seems like an attempt to get their state owned agricultural bank back on the SWIFT system. Regardless, we're seeing wheat futures reverse course from their morning losses to trade in the green once again as the uncertainty of renewal continues to grow.

Similar to the U.S. Fed, the European Central Bank hiked rates by 25 basis points today, bringing their benchmark interest rate to 3.25%. Unlike the Fed, however, ECB President Christine Lagarde was definitive in saying "we are not pausing - that is very clear" at her subsequent press conference, though the 25 point hike does represent a slowdown from their recent string of 50 basis point increases. This morning's Euro Area PPI did show improvement to inflationary pressures in Europe, with March showing a 5.9% year-on-year climb, the lowest rate seen since March 2021. With a target of 2%, however, there's still more work to be done.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

Grains & Oilseeds

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