Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for May 5

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 05 May 2026, 16:50

May 5 – The Nasdaq has officially broken 28,000 for the first time in history as it makes yet another record high amid ongoing strength in the tech sector, while the other major stock indexes remain comfortably in the green at midday as well. The VIX continues to cool too, hovering around 17.4 at the time of writing. The dollar is still having a quiet day, though it is now slightly in the red, trading just above 98.4, smack dab in the middle of its recent range. Treasuries are slightly in the red as well, with 10-year yields falling below 4.42% and 2-year yields trading just above 3.93%. Crude oil saw a brief intraday pop following reports from the U.A.E.’s defense ministry saying they were dealing with missile threats again today but has since cooled back off amid U.S. confirmation of the ceasefire remaining in place. Nearby WTI is down roughly 2.8% on the day to trade around $102.20 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent is down close to 3.5% to trade near $110.40. The ags are mixed, with the grains and oilseeds firmly in the red, though both feeder and live cattle futures are notably higher on the day as they erase yesterday’s losses.

This morning’s JOLTs Report for the month of March showed total job openings in the U.S. at 6.866 million, beating expectations of 6.835 million but still marking a drop of 56k month-over-month, partially due to an upward revision in February from the 6.882 million previously reported up to 6.922 million. By sector, the biggest increase in openings was seen in finance and insurance (+98k) while the biggest decrease was seen in professional and business services (-318k). What really stood out in today’s release, however, was the sharp jump in hires, up an impressive 13.4% month-over-month to 5.554 million, the highest level seen in two years. Job quits also rebounded to a three-month high of 3.171 million, perhaps suggesting workers still feel confident enough to switch jobs. The longer-term trend has been a “low hire, low fire” equilibrium, but a meaningful pickup in hiring in March is another sign of labor market resilience, especially in the backdrop of increased uncertainty with this data being collected amid the initial heat of the war in the Middle East breaking out. Overall, it appears the labor market is gliding, not cracking, but all eyes will be on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report to truly set the tone.

Growth in the U.S. service sector remains intact, with ISM’s April headline Services PMI coming in at 53.6, effectively in line with the estimated 53.7; this was off slightly from the 54.0 seen in March but represents the 22^nd consecutive month in expansionary territory. Overall business activity in the sector moved higher to 55.9 in April from the 53.9 seen in March, while the employment subindex also improved 2.8 points from March to now sit at 48.0—it’s worth pointing out that this is two consecutive months of employment holding in contractionary territory after three consecutive months of expansion from December through February, something to potentially keep an eye on. S&P Global’s Services PMI also showed growth in April, rising to 51.0 after reaching a three-year low of 49.8 in March.

Underlying inflationary pressures are still present, however, with ISM’s Prices Paid subindex holding at the same 70.7 seen in March, continuing to represent a high not seen since the fall of 2022. This points to a sticky inflation story that is unlikely to go away any time soon, especially when combined with strong jumps in headline inflation due to spiking energy costs. The market will get fresh inflation data to digest next week, with April CPI due out next Tuesday (5/12) and PPI following on Wednesday (5/13). Headline CPI jumped to a nearly two-year high in March while headline PPI rose at its fastest in over three years. This continues to point to contrasting signals for the Fed, with a resilient labor market suggesting cuts could potentially be on the table, but stubborn inflation suggesting the opposite. Again, this is a story unlikely to go away any time soon and will probably remain a hot topic through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

New home sales jumped in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 682k, well above expectations of a more modest rebound to 650k. February data was also published today, showing an improvement to 635k after the three-and-a-half-year low made in January at only 583k. Regionally speaking, gains in the Northeast (+80%) and South (+11.1%) more than offset declines seen in the Midwest (-5.0%) and West (-3.5%). The median sales price fell to $387,400 in March, down 5.3% from February and down 6.2% from March of last year. New home inventories fell to 481k units at the end of March, representing ~8.5 months of supply at the current sales pace. This is a notable decline from the recent peak of 9.8 months’ worth of supply seen in January while also sitting below the 9.2 seen in the same period last year.

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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