Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 11 Nov 2022, 16:31

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

November 11 - Stocks are mixed at mid-day after a strong start to the morning on the back of yesterday's rally. The Nasdaq is currently leading the major indices, up 1.3% at the time of writing, while the S&P 500 holds onto gains of 0.5%, and the Dow Jones is in the red, down -0.7% on the day. The VIX is falling again, sitting near 22.7 as optimism remains on Wall Street following yesterday's better than expected CPI reading. The dollar continues its descent, now down below 107 after falling hard yesterday as well. U.S. treasury markets are closed today for Veteran's Day, while commodities are largely firm across the board.

U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest since July, with today's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showing a reading of 54.7. This is an 8.7% drop from the month prior and breaks a four month streak of month-on-month improvements following June's record low of 50. Consumer views of current economic conditions declined 11.9% from October, with its index reading coming in at 57.8, while the index of consumer expectations fell 6.2% to a reading of 52.7. Inflation expectations rose, with consumers expecting year ahead inflation of 5.1% compared to October's 5.0%, while 5-year inflation expectations increased to 3.0% vs. the 2.9% seen in the month prior. Consumers' views on major purchases worsened in November, with 83% of respondents believing it is a bad time to buy a house, 74% believing it's a bad time to buy a vehicle, and 62% believing it's a bad time to buy a major household item. Michigan's Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu also noted in the summary of the results that "instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election," perhaps providing the market a reminder of the reality of the current economic situation despite the current upbeat tune following yesterday's CPI reading.

Russian officials today announced the completion of their withdrawal from Kherson, claiming to not have lost any soldiers or military equipment in the process. Local reports paint a different picture of an unorganized scramble to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, with soldiers looting what they could and leaving behind large amounts of equipment and uniforms as deserters changed into civilian clothes. Ukrainian intelligence reports many Russian soldiers still left in and around the city, now cut off from their positions on the eastern bank as the last remaining bridge connecting the two sides was destroyed. Kherson was the only regional capital captured by the Russians in their initial invasion and adds to the list of recent battlefield losses.

U.N. negotiations with Russia began in Geneva today, with just over a week to keep the current deal for a Ukrainian export corridor alive as it is set to expire on 11/19. Russia has indicated its desire to quit the deal, after having backed out for four days in October before abruptly re-joining. Ukraine, Turkey, and the U.N. all remain optimistic that an agreement for renewal can be made, but Russia's opposition may grow as they look for any means possible to weaken Ukraine following their poor performance on the battlefield. If the sides are unable to reach an agreement, Ukrainian food commodities would again be cut off from the global market as they were for the first five months of the war.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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