Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 29 Nov 2024, 16:42

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 29 - Stocks pushed higher on strong Black Friday retail sales with the S&P 500 stock index hitting a fresh record high this morning in this holiday-shortened trading session. The VIX is trading below 14 midday, while the dollar index is trading 106.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.21%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. Crude oil prices are nearly 1% higher, while grain and oilseed prices are mixed in quiet holiday trade. The feeder cattle market continues to push higher as supplies of light-weight cattle tighten amid a smaller supply of cattle coming out of Mexico, and more of them going to wheat pasture rather than to feedlots, which will slow corn feed demand.

Exporters sold an impressive 91.5 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending November 21, as shown below, but there was plenty of other good news for the sector as well. USDA reports that exporters also sold 124,800 tonnes of soyoil during the week, along with 487,300 tonnes of soymeal, making the trifecta for the soy complex. Additional sales included 41.8 million old-crop bushels of corn, 4.8 million bushels of grain sorghum, and 13.5 million bushels of wheat. Wheat sales continue to trend slightly above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, while grain sorghum sales are more than 40 million bushels below the pace.

Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.245 billion bushels, 110 million bushels or nearly 10% from the previous year's pace, and are now 40 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year. The biggest portion of weekly sales continue to go to China, with the latest week's total including 39.9 million bushels going to China. Yet, marketing year to date sales to China continue to lag the previous year's pace by 43 million bushels, and it's not really closing the gap. But a series of other countries are bumping their purchases ahead of the previous year's pace. Very few supplies are currently available from Brazil, leaving the United States as the primary supply currently. China basically emptied Brazil's shelves of exportable supplies, although that will change once the harvest begins in another 30 - 40 days. That will be the true test - to see how fast and how significantly demand for U.S. soybeans drops off. Mexico will likely continue buying from the United States, barring a tariff war there. Marketing year to date soybean sales to Mexico fall short of the previous year's pace by roughly 7 million bushels, but the gap is closing. By the way, USDA announced flash sales this morning of another 36.4 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

This week's soyoil sales of 124,800 tonnes of soyoil were led by India at 47,000 tonnes, with large sales also to Algeria, China, Dominican Republic and South Korea. The bulk (338,500 tonnes) of soymeal sales went to the Philippines. U.S. crush expanded on expectations that the liquid biofuel industry would absorb the extra oil supplies. That's not happening in the absence of the new 45Z guidelines, leading fuel processors to prepare to shut down, leaving massive supplies on the market that are now cheap enough to feed world demand as palm oil prices surge.We see similar dynamics meal. Marketing year corn export sales total 1.278 billion bushels, up 115 million bushels from the previous year's pace, and 258 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, with the bulk of that surplus to "unknown destinations."

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