Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for November 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 03 Nov 2022, 16:04

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

November 3 - A strong dollar amid rate hike fears continued to create headwinds for both stocks and for commodity prices, although some individual assets managed to firm despite those factors. The VIX continues to trade near 26, indicating that the Federal Reserve's statements on Wednesday may have failed to ease concerns of traders, but it didn't materially add to the panic factor. The dollar index is trading near 112.9 as we approach midday, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%. Crude oil prices are down by more than 1%, while the grain and oilseed markets are mostly lower.

Wheat prices fell sharply yesterday when Russia rejoined the trade agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain out of three ports, with follow-through selling overnight. Prices erased the premium added earlier this week on tight supply fears, taking them back to Friday's values. However, that's where buying returned. Friday's values are currently seen as an area of support for the market, leading to buyers returning to trade the range. The market appears uncomfortable pressing prices to new lows for the move as long as Russian President Putin is threatening to not extend the agreement beyond its November 19 expiration. Today's rebound was sufficient to post modest gains in the wheat market at times. Corn prices also bounced off the bottom of the recent trading range, but they continue to post modest losses. The soyoil market continues to press higher, but notably lower meal prices were sufficient to keep soybean prices in the red as we approached midday. The protein complex was mixed in a day of consolidation, although the strong dollar is certainly creating headwinds for cattle and hog futures.

Exporters sold 30.5 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending October 27, as shown below, along with 14.7 million bushels of corn, 12.8 million bushels of wheat and 0.5 million bushels of grain sorghum. None of the above numbers were strong enough to impress traders. The below graphic shows the past week's net soybean sales versus sales in the same week over the past quarter century. This morning's weekly USDA export sales report also included news that China cancelled a cargo of previously purchased corn. As for soybeans, China was a net buyer of 27.4 million bushels of U.S. soybeans during the week reported, although 14.9 million of that total was a mere shift from previous sale to "unknown destinations," while China cancelled purchases of another 7.8 million bushels. Chinese buyers report that they're able to get South American soybeans for up to $1.60 per bushel less than U.S. supplies due to a) the strong dollar and b) strong Gulf FOB prices due to low water levels on the Mississippi River. Marketing year to date soybean export sales total 1.187 billion bushels as of October 27, which falls 64 million bushels short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the year, and the deficit is growing. Marketing year to date corn export sales total just 570 million bushels, which is the fourth lowest of the past two decades for the date. The total falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 322 million bushels, and the deficit continues to grow. Again, the strong dollar and low water levels on the Mississippi River are rationing demand for U.S. corn as long as South American supplies are available.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

Grains & Oilseeds

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