Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 14 Oct 2025, 17:16

Today's Perspective Video: China's Rare Earth Power Move

October 14 - Stocks are slowly erasing overnight losses, with both the Dow and S&P moving into positive territory at midday as China worries ease somewhat. The overnight markets reacted in fear over the start of the port fees being charged both by China and the United States, but the U.S. markets had largely already priced this in. The U.S. port fees have been known for months, and it was anticipated that China would reciprocate.

The primary risk factor between China and the United States continues to be China's corner on the global rare earth minerals market, which it is trying to leverage before the United States is successful at ramping up production. President Trump put that on fast track last week, following a process similar to what he did to get the Covid vaccine out quickly in 2020. The rare earth mineral monopoly is China's best leverage card to play, and it apparently chose to play it before the United States could ramp up its own production. In this case, it chose to play it against the world - not just the United States. President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods coming to the United States on November 1 if China chooses to stick with its restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets. Of note, November 1 comes following the end of the APEC conference in South Korea, where it is hoped that President Trump will meet with President Xi to work out some level of an agreement.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated today that the central bank is close to ending its balance sheet runoff, which should provide some stimulus to the economy - or at least reduce some headwinds. That provided additional tailwinds for the outside markets, with Powell also painting a picture of a resilient economy, while acknowledging a soft labor market. Stocks are mixed to higher at midday, while the VIX slipped back below 20, and the dollar index pulled back to trade near 99.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.03% after failing to sustain a probe below 4% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.48%. Crude oil prices remain weaker on the day, although off their five-month lows posted earlier this morning. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed, with soybeans continuing to post modest losses on China concerns, while corn and wheat prices post modest gains after posting new lows for the move earlier in the session.

USDA inspected 44.5 million bushels of corn in the week ending October 9, as shown below, along with 36.5 million bushels of soybeans, 16.3 million bushels of wheat, and 0.8 million bushels of grain sorghum. China remains out of the U.S. market. We're shipping some pork to China, but not much more. We're 39 days into the new marketing year for grain sorghum, which has a high export target from USDA of 225 million bushels. So far USDA has inspected just 5 million bushels for export shipment to non-China destinations, leaving us already 13 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Marketing year to date corn export inspections 39 days into the year total 313 million bushels, up 123 million bushels or 65% from the previous year's pace, and 80 million bushels over the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record high target for the year. Yet, marketing year to date soybean export inspections only total 148 million bushels, down 52 million or 26% from the previous year's pace, and 28 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. The wheat marketing year began on June 1st. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 45 million bushels. Corn and wheat enjoy strong demand, but with ample supplies, while soybeans and sorghum struggle in the absence of Chinese buying.

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