Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 20 Oct 2025, 16:52

Today's Perspective Video: Soybeans Rally on Trump Trade Talk

October 20 - President Trump continued to speak with optimism today regarding next week's anticipated meeting with President Xi of China on the sideline of the APAC conference in Seoul, South Korea. His Treasury Secretary is in Malaysia this week negotiating with China's Vice-Premier seeking to achieve a trade agreement prior to next week's meeting of Trump and Xi. The positives are that Trump and Xi are meeting, and that Trump has soybeans on his radar. It's yet to be seen whether the talk will result in concrete results, but traders want to be optimistic.

Many stocks gapped higher today on this key earnings week amid the above China optimism. The VIX slipped below 19, reflecting easing concerns, while the dollar index rallied modestly to trade near 98.5. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.99%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.46%. Crude oil prices are trading modestly lower after setting fresh five-month lows earlier today, while the grain and oilseed sector is mixed to mostly higher, led by double-digit gains for soybeans at midday on that China optimism. Live cattle futures bounced today following Friday's collapse, with feeder cattle futures close behind. The cattle market collapsed in active liquidation on Friday following late Thursday comments by President Trump that his administration had completed a deal to bring beef prices down. He confirmed late yesterday that his administration plans to increase beef imports from Argentina. The market seemed relieved that he was not removing the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef. Even so, futures are struggling thus far to sustain gains at these high price levels.

USDA inspected 54.2 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending October 16, along with 51.9 million bushels of corn, 17.7 million bushels of wheat, and 0.09 million bushels of grain sorghum. None of the above inspected commodities were destined for China, which has been the case for some time now. Weekly soybean shipments are coming in stronger than what I think many people expected in the absence of Chinese buying, largely due to a pick up of business from other destinations. Mexico continues to be a strong taker of U.S. soybeans, as has been the case, but other countries are increasingly turning to U.S. supplies after getting squeezed out of the Brazil market by China. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 203 million bushels through the first 46 days of the year, which is the lowest total in a dozen years. The total is down 91 million bushels or 31% from the previous year's pace, and down 43 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit reduced USDA's target for the year, with that gap continuing to grow.

It's the opposite story for corn, which continues to see record demand. Marketing year corn export inspections for the first 46 days of the year total a record 368 million bushels, up 139 million bushels or 61% from the previous year's pace, and 97 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's record target for the year. Weekly shipments have slowed considerably over the past several weeks, but they still remain well above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target as U.S. corn remains competitive on the world market. Grain sorghum demand, however, continues to struggle, with just 5 million bushels inspected for export shipment thus far, which is 15 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, and the deficit grows on a weekly basis. Marketing year wheat export inspections are at a 12-year high 411 million bushels, which is up 70 million bushels or 20% from the previous year's pace, and 53 million bushels above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, and the gap keeps growing.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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