Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 27 Oct 2023, 15:57

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Market Intelligence - Senior Fertilizer Analyst

October 27 - The major stock indexes are mixed at mid-day, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher on strength in the tech sector, the S&P 500 holding narrowly in the green, and the Dow Jones in the red for a third consecutive day. The VIX is down slightly on the day, hovering around the 20 level. The U.S. dollar has reversed course from this morning's gains to trade in the red near 106.2 at the time of writing. Treasuries are mixed, with 10-year yields pushing slightly higher to trade just above 4.86% while 2-year yields remain close to unchanged from the day prior around 5.04%. Crude oil is up this morning after yesterday's losses, in part due to further escalations in the Middle East, with reports of Israel conducting further raids into Gaza as well as reports of U.S. air strikes on Iranian military targets in eastern Syria overnight in response to the recent ramp-up in attacks on U.S. military targets in the region by Iranian-backed proxies. The ags are mixed at mid-day, with the soy complex pushing higher on continued strength in soymeal, dragging corn slightly higher, while the wheat complex falls.

Consumer inflation expectations rose in the U.S. in October, with this morning's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey showing both 1-year and 5-year expectations increasing from the month prior. 1-year inflation expectations jumped a full percentage point from September, up to 4.2%, marking the highest level seen since May. 5-year inflation expectations saw a smaller jump, rising 0.2% from the month prior to reach 3.0% again, matching the same level seen throughout the summer. This, coupled with this morning's PCE readings showing inflation holding stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target look to keep the inflation conversation in the focus of traders ahead of the Fed's upcoming meeting next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Overall consumer sentiment did improve on this morning's report, however, with the headline Consumer Sentiment Index rising 0.8 points from the preliminary October reading to reach 63.8, though that still marks a sharp drop from September's 68.1 reading. That improvement was largely front-end driven, with the Current Economic Conditions portion of the index seeing a very minor drop from the month prior, falling to 70.6 versus the 71.4 seen in September, while the forward outlook softened notably, with the Consumer Expectations portion of the index falling 6.7 points from the month prior to sit at 59.3, also the worst reading since May. Survey participants noted declining expectations for business conditions and their own personal finances in the months ahead, in part due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East and its potential cascading impact.

The tech sector is recovering today after an ugly week, with better-than-expected results coming from both Amazon and Intel's Q3 earnings after yesterday's close. Amazon's surprisingly upbeat third quarter revenues adds another highlight to the continued strength of the U.S. consumer in the near-term despite the souring economic outlook going forward. This morning's push higher is a welcomed reverse in course after the tech-heavy NASDAQ shed over 4% in the previous two sessions, led in large part by heavy losses for Google parent company Alphabet as well as Facebook parent Meta following earnings reports earlier in the week. Big tech will cap off this quarter's earnings season next week, with Apple due to report on Thursday (11/2).

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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