Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for October 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 03 Oct 2022, 16:39

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 3 - It was "risk-on" on Wall Street this morning, as the fourth quarter kicked off on a positive note, with traders talking about the possibility that we may be near the lows after having priced in recession expectations. Even so, the VIX continues to trade near 30, suggesting that fear levels remain high on Wall Street for the time being. The dollar index slipped lower to trade near 111.8 at midday, while yields on 10-year Treasuries traded near 3.63%, although that was off the session low below 3.57%. Yields have lost nearly a half percentage point from last week's high. Crude oil prices are up 4% at midday, while the Ags are mixed to higher.

It's largely been a choppy uneventful day in the grain and oilseed markets. These markets generally firmed overnight, but today's session started with traders unwinding corn / soybean and wheat / soybean spreads put on following Friday's USDA reports that produced big losses in soybeans versus gains in corn and wheat. That helped lift soybean prices in this morning's trade at the expense of corn and wheat prices, although all three have done better as we approached midday, following the broader market rally to start the month and the quarter. The exception is Chicago wheat, which remains in the red with modest losses at midday. The protein sector was largely in the green at midday as well, getting a boost from today's optimism on Wall Street.

USDA inspected 26.0 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending September 29, along with 24.5 million bushels of wheat, 21.1 million bushels of soybeans and 0.2 million bushels of grain sorghum. The wheat number was good, as it has been now for several weeks, but the rest of the numbers did little to impress traders. In fact, today's wheat number didn't move the needle much in this morning's trade either. Nonetheless, marketing year to date wheat export shipments now match the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target, after the recent pick up in shipments erases the deficit that had been in place for much of the year to date.

Outside of wheat, U.S. grain and oilseed export demand is hurting currently. Last week's soybean export shipments at 21.1 million bushels, as shown below, were more than twice the previous week's dismal total, but they still were less than half the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target this year. Early harvested soybeans in the Mid-South had quality issues due to persistent rains, and exporters needed to wait for better quality soybeans to come down the river to blend for export. The problem is, the Midwest drought has river levels so low, that the movement of soybeans has been slow and expensive. USDA inspection data shows that exporters have shipped 65.45 million bushels of U.S. soybeans in the first 29 days of the marketing year, which is even less than last year's total when Hurricane Ida shut down the ports of New Orleans, and 93 million bushels below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target for the marketing year. Corn export inspections through the first 29 days of the marketing year total 92.8 million bushels, although that falls short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 89 million bushels.

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