Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 22 Sep 2025, 16:57

Today's Perspective Video: Corn Export Demand on Fire

September 22 - Stocks rallied from early losses to reach new record highs today, as traders look beyond confusion created by President Trump's new tax for H1B visas. The VIX continues to trade near 16, while the dollar index slipped lower to trade near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14%, after hitting fresh two-week highs, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59%. Crude oil prices continue to post modest losses on the day, while the grain and oilseed markets are under active pressure, led by 1.5% losses in soybeans on lost export business as outlined in this morning's commentary. Meanwhile, the cattle market is on fire today.

A case of New World Screwworm was found less than 70 miles south of the U.S. / Mexico border, according to USDA. That makes it unlikely that we'll see the border with Mexico open any time soon for cattle to come north to be fed in U.S. feedlots. Rather, we'll continue to export the corn to Mexico to feed the cattle down there, so that the meat can be shipped north to fill our protein deficit. Each animal fed equates to roughly 60 bushels of corn. There were 1.2 million head of Mexican cattle that came north to be fed in U.S. feedlots in 2024. This will continue to keep protein supplies tight in the United States. We were filling that deficit with Brazilian beef until President Trump placed a 50% tariff on Brazilian products earlier this year. President Trump is upset with Brazil's prosecution of former President Bolsonaro for allegedly trying to steal the last election. He was sentenced to 27 years in prison on September 11. The U.S. Treasury Department has reportedly now sanctioned the wife of Brazil Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes under the Magnitsky Act, two months after targeting Moraes himself. This suggests that the 50% tariff on Brazilian beef, and coffee, will likely remain in place for the time being. U.S. feeder cattle futures are trading sharply higher this morning, following the news of the New World Screwworm discovery in northern Mexico.

USDA inspected 52.3 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending September 18, as shown below, along with 17.8 million bushels of soybeans, 31.4 million bushels of wheat, and 1.2 million bushels of grain sorghum. The strong wheat export inspections continue a pace of solid demand seen through the first 16 weeks of its marketing year totaling 320 million bushels, up 13% from the previous year's pace. Marketing year to date export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 32 million bushels. Demand for U.S. wheat remains strong as long as the dollar continues to trend weaker and we stay price competitive with the Black Sea.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed 137 million bushels, which is the third fastest pace on record for the first several weeks of a new marketing year, and 59% above the previous year's pace. In fact, the pace seen thus far in September exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 29 million bushels, and the gap continues to expand each week that passes. Argentina's export tax holiday may chew into that demand somewhat in the weeks ahead, as it drops the price of Argentine corn by 50 cents per bushel. However, Mexico continues to be our best customer, and that's not likely to change with our freight advantage. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total less than 58 million bushels through the first 18 days of the year, up 26% year-on-year, but just matching the early pace needed to hit USDA's target. However, that seasonal pace ramps up pretty fast to nearly 75 bushels per week over the next several weeks, so we will likely fall rapidly behind in the absence of Chinese business.

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