Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 04 Sep 2025, 17:04

Today's Perspective Video: China and Courts Fight Back Against Trump Tariffs

September 4 - Stocks slowly firmed this morning, led by the tech sector, despite this morning's data showing some more softening of the jobs market. Traders are fully convinced now that we will see a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in two weeks, which means that bad news is good news in the eyes of Wall Street traders. The VIX slipped back below 16 during the morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading at a fresh four-month low near 4.18%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are setting their own new four-month low near 3.59%. Crude oil prices are modestly lower, but coming off their lows, while the grain and oilseed sector has a mixed to weaker tone to it.

Soybean prices slipped to fresh lows for the move today - the lowest since the August 12 report in which USDA shocked the trade with a 2.1 million acre reduction in planted area for the crop. Prices continue to erode lower on the absence of a final ruling of SRE offsets to the RVO, as well as a final ruling on credits for imported feedstock. But the bigger factor is the lack of export demand from China. Our cash sources suggest that China has nearly completed booking its September and October import needs. That's a period of time in which China imported more than 250 million bushels of U.S. soybeans last year, and that was down from previous years. That's business that we won't get back. USDA's export target for the 2025-26 year is 1.705 billion bushels, down from 1.875 billion in the year that ended August 31, although I believe that number will be pushed up towards 1.890 billion bushels. So, you could argue that USDA has already accounted for that lost business. The problem is, we still do not have a trade deal with China, and new talks are not expected until late October or early November. It's always possible that we could see China make purchases in the meantime, but we currently see no evidence of it. China imported 841 million bushels from the United States in the 2024-25 marketing year. It is physically possible for it to go through the next year without purchasing a bushel if it chooses to utilize its reserves, when combined with South American soybeans. That may depend on the upcoming growing season, with planting just getting started in Brazil currently. That doesn't mean that U.S. exports would drop by 841 million bushels, as China would likely squeeze some smaller customers out of the Brazil market who would end up coming to the States, but there is still significant downside risk to U.S. exports for the current year.

M2 money supply measures how much cash is in the economy that is relatively fluid, including money in currency, checking accounts, travelers checks, savings accounts, small denomination CDs, and retail money market funds. M2 hit a record high $2.1 trillion in August, up from just below $22 trillion in July. That's a tremendous amount of spending potential if we ever remove the "uncertainty" from the economy. Removing that uncertainty would likely trigger businesses to take advantage of the stimulus in the tax bill to expand, increasing employment, which then increases consumer sentiment. That's the risk for central bankers when they meet in two weeks. Do they lower interest rates at a time when money supply is record high and expansion incentives are high for business on the risk that President Trump removes "uncertainty" from the economy next year ahead of the mid-term elections? Lower interest rates probably make sense as long as uncertainty remains high, but the latter is an unknown that remains in Trump's hands.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 12

August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.

Arlan SudermanWed, 12 Aug 2026, 13:33

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 10

August 10 - Stocks traded quietly mixed to weaker through much of the morning as investors weigh Middle East war / peace headlines with artificial intelligence concerns / opportunities. Ironically, the VIX is trading near 15, putting it just barely above 2026 lows, despite the high level of geopolitical risks and AI concerns. The dollar index continues to consolidate largely between 99.5 and 100.0 after the late July break in what appeared to be Japanese central bank currency intervention. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.70%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 at this hour, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel on the geopolitical risks. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed ahead of Wednesday's big USDA WASDE crop report.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 17:02

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