Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for September 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 09 Sep 2022, 15:11

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 9 - The tech sector led the way higher for stocks this morning as fears ease on Wall Street, leading to broad-based buying in both the commodity and the equity sectors. The VIX is trading near 23 at this hour, reflecting easing concerns on Wall Street. The dollar index is notably lower at 109.44, although still relatively close to this week's 20-year highs. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.29%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are nearly 3% higher on this recovery bounce, while the Ags are mostly higher as well. Grain and oilseed traders are positioning for Monday's big USDA WASDE crop report to be released on Monday.

USDA expects to release four weeks of export sales data on September 15 in three separate reports, according to a press release this morning. Data for the week ending August 18 and data for the week ending August 25 will be combined into a single report, according to the agency. Separate weekly reports will be released for the reporting periods ending September 1, and for the week ending September 8. The data released on September 15 will be published via its legacy export sales reporting system. USDA still hopes to eventually shift to its new reporting system.

South America increasingly becomes the focus as we move into late September, as planting of the 2023 crops begins to gather momentum. The graphic to the left below shows the 10-day rainfall forecast for South America. Note generally light and scattered showers over Argentina, with the longer-term outlook extending to October 24 on the right suggesting that Argentina will largely lean dry through late next month, and possibly beyond. That doesn't bode well for Argentina's wheat crop. However, we still have another 60 days plus for the weather to turn for Argentina's corn and soybean crops. Planting there is much later than in Brazil, and it extends over a longer span of time.

It's been quite dry in Brazil, but that's normal. Brazil's rainy season typically starts around this time of year, providing moisture for planting of the next year's crops. Soybean planting in Parana can start this weekend, while getting started late next week in most other areas. Note that monsoonal rains are expected start working into western Mato Grosso over the next 10 days, while other rains favor southern Brazil. The graphic on the right peering deep into October suggests that more rains will spread across Brazil through the period. Confidence is low in these long-term forecasts, but they do provide an indication of what the atmospheric conditions are currently projecting. StoneX Brazil's customer survey projects a soybean crop totaling 153.59 million metric tons this year on 4% more acres if it has a normal growing season. That's equivalent to 5.643 billion bushels, and up nearly a billion bushels from the previous crop. La Nina could still change that, but thus far the weather forecasts suggest that we need to write in expectations for a return to normal yields in Brazil.

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