Perspective: Morning Commentary December 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 Dec 2025, 13:45

December 3 – Treasury yields dropped, dragging the dollar to a fresh five-week low, following the release of private-sector jobs data this morning. Stocks were modestly higher overnight and managed to remain in positive territory following the release of that data, despite some initial selling. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, so there’s no panic on Wall Street ahead of next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, while the dollar index trades near 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.48%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher as they consolidate near $59 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mixed to weaker overnight.

This morning’s ADP employment report indicated that the private sector lost 32K jobs in November, which was worse than the 20K job gain anticipated by analysts. The October number was revised to a positive 47K jobs created, up from the 42K originally reported. This morning’s ADP report suggests that the economic gains achieved in part of September, and built upon in October, started to diminish in November. That also fits with consumer survey results as well. We were coming out of the partial government shutdown in November, with a great deal of domestic and international uncertainty still before us. President Trump is taking steps to calm the waters internationally, but it’s yet to be seen whether that will be sufficient to restore certainty and confidence to the business community, as well as to the consumer.

President Trump’s special envoy visit to Moscow ended without an agreement on Tuesday, but neither side is calling yesterday’s meeting a failure. There continue to be issues of disagreement, but the talks continue. President Trump ramped up efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, but it’s yet to be seen if it will bear fruit. At times President Putin shows signs of wanting an off-ramp from this costly war, while at other times he appears to be playing Trump to humor Chinese President Xi. I’ve previously outlined how Xi benefits from the war continuing in Ukraine. It keeps Putin allied with him against Trump, rather than allow Putin to consider partnering with Trump against him – none of the three trust each other. The ongoing war also keeps the United States away the rare earth minerals in Ukraine, while also focusing valuable military assets on Eastern Europe rather than the Indo-Pacific.

Commodity prices exploded higher in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Black Sea is a key world export front for food and energy – primarily wheat and crude oil, but many other commodities as well. Russia and Ukraine combined are responsible for 27% of this year’s exportable wheat, while Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of corn. The bulk of Russia’s water-borne crude oil exports also pass through the Black Sea. The markets worried that this valuable supply of food and energy would be curtailed. We soon learned that both sides wanted to fight this war without interfering with these shipments, and the war premium disappeared. Occasional strikes on infrastructure would spur short covering by the funds, but eventually the markets became numb to these risks. The start of peace talks this year also escalated the war effort. Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine energy infrastructure, and Ukraine reciprocated on Russian energy infrastructure. Yet, the markets remained unconcerned, with shipping largely unaffected.

That all changed over the past week when four Russia connected tankers were attacked by drones – presumably by Ukraine. Yesterday’s tanker attack was actually carrying soybean oil. President Putin went to the airwaves in Moscow threatening to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, while also suggesting that ships carrying commodities for countries supporting Ukraine could also be at risk. Wheat prices led corn higher as fund managers covered short positions. But even there, the response was relatively small considering the risk. The markets are still numb to the war news. The risk that the markets would respect would if the threat became great enough that shippers refused to enter the Black Sea, or insurance costs would be too high to make it feasible. We’re not there at this point, and we may not reach that point. But we’re a step closer to that point this week than we were last week, and it’s a risk that must be respected.

March corn futures ran into chart resistance near $4.50 per bushel overnight – an area that provided psychological resistance over the past several months – and sold off again. Meanwhile, the January soybean contract continues to consolidate between $11.20 and $11.40 while waiting for clarity. Both commodities are waiting for greater clarity from China on exports and from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the nation’s biofuel program, which will dictate the level of demand we’ll have in the coming years. Wheat prices took back yesterday’s war premium, reflecting how they’ve become numb to headline risk in the region in recent years.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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