Perspective: Morning Commentary February 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 13 Feb 2026, 14:34

February 13 – More good news for the economy came from this morning’s inflation data. Stock futures rallied to erase overnight losses when the data was initially released, while the VIX fell to trade near 21, after trading near 22 earlier in the session on lingering AI fears. The dollar index fell on the inflation data, following Treasury yields lower, although both have already rebounded. The dollar index is trading near 96.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, reflecting fresh two-month lows on the data release, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.42%, reflecting nearly four-month lows on the favorable inflation data, with the yield curve narrowing. Crude oil prices fell notably early this morning on a report that OPEC is considering another increase in output, but then the market recovered to trade modestly higher on ideas that OPEC must see improving demand in its outlook. The grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker overnight after solid gains across the board on Thursday as farmers continue to sell the rallies; both here and in Brazil.

The headline consumer price index rose just 0.2% month-on-month in January, down from 0.3% in December and down from analyst expectations that it would remain steady at 0.3% growth. The headline CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in January, down from 2.7% the previous month, and down from analyst expectations that it would drop to 2.5%. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose at a 0.3% monthly pace in January, up from 0.2% in December, but matching analyst expectations. The core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in January, down from 2.6% in December, but matching expectations.

These are good numbers, similar to the jobs numbers that we saw on Wednesday. But like the jobs numbers, there are numbers within the report to celebrate, and numbers that raise some concerns for the future. First, the positives from the report. Energy prices were down 1.5% on the month, led by fuel oil prices falling by 5.7% and gasoline prices falling by 3.2%. That was partially offset by a 1% rise in natural gas prices, largely due to the big Arctic blast in late January that sent prices soaring. Used cars and trucks fell by 1.8% on the month, while shelter prices only rose by 0.2% on the month. Shelter has been an area of sticky inflation. Food inflation was only at 0.2% on the month as well. Overall, goods inflation continues to show very little impact from the tariffs, with many on the Street now beginning to discount that concern, although it will remain a political issue in this midterm election year. Now for the concerns. Transportation services rose by 1.4% on the month in January. I’m also concerned about the fact that falling energy prices were a large part of today’s favorable inflation numbers, and energy prices are now at relatively low levels. What happens when / if they cycle higher? President Trump doesn’t expect that to happen, and maybe they won’t, but history suggests that the unexpected happens and that cycles find ways to repeat. Nonetheless, the bottom line remains that this week’s data suggests that the economy is growing, the job market is improving, inflation is coming closer to the 2% mandate, and the Fed may be able to cut rates again this year.

Negotiators from both China and the United States continue to work toward a deal that their two Heads of State can celebrate when President Trump visits President Xi in Beijing – likely in the first week of April. I covered the progress said to be occurring in those talks yesterday, with sentiment upbeat after President Xi’s phone call to President Trump on February 4. But let’s not forget that another lengthy phone call took place several hours prior to that one – this one between President Xi and President Putin of Russia. Both were believed to be part of Xi’s strategy to rebuild support for his leadership within the Communist Party leadership in China.

Bloomberg published a story stating it had been shown a document in Russia outlining areas of anticipated commonality with U.S. goals that could lead to peace in Ukraine. It included a return to the dollar for trade, long-term aviation contracts to rebuild Russia’s fleet, joint oil and LNG ventures, preferential treatment for U.S. companies to return to Russia, cooperation on nuclear energy and AI projects, cooperation on critical minerals, and working together to promote fossil fuels in the world economy. One of the fears within China has been that a peace agreement in Ukraine could lead to Putin aligning himself with Trump at China’s expense, and we do know that Trump has been trying to leverage his way between Putin and Xi, offering cooperation that would help Russia rebuild its struggling economy. So the question now is, is the above document evidence that Russia is moving away from China and toward the United States? Many of the above factors would certainly be disruptive to Putin’s relationship with Beijing. Or, is the document meant to drive a deeper wedge between the United States and its European allies, as several of the points in the document certainly go against European objectives. Just as Trump knows that Xi needs to calm the international waters, Putin knows that the same is true for Trump ahead of the midterm elections. What we do know is that the dynamics are changing, and that will impact commodities.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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