Perspective: Morning Commentary February 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 15:02

February 23 – Stock futures remained under pressure overnight amid ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy, and ongoing tensions with Iran in the Middle East, to go along with lingering AI fears. The VIX is trading near 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%, as the yield curve contracts. Crude oil prices are modestly higher this morning, trading at nearly seven-month highs. The grain and oilseed sector is mixed to higher due to ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy at a time when most balance sheets are more than adequately supplied.

Iran and the United States remain far apart in negotiations, sustaining fears that we will see a U.S. military strike on the nation. However, we are seeing movement this morning after Iran offered some concessions. The two nations are still far apart, but it’s a good sign that Iran started to make concessions. Iran still insists on its right to do uranium enrichment, but it offered some concessions in its nuclear program, nonetheless. The United States does not trust enrichment taking place within Iran, but it proposed allowing Iran to participate in a regional program that could be better monitored. Iran also offered the opportunity for U.S. companies to participate in its extensive oil production and export program. But the fact that prices remain at nearly seven-month highs at a time when the world is well supplied provides evidence of the risk still in place.

It’s largely believed that the Trump Administration would like to see a regime change in Iran. The current regime has been in place for nearly five decades, with an ongoing goal of destroying Israel and of destroying the United States. The possibility remains that this regime could disappear overnight at some point, ending up in Russia or elsewhere where the deposed leaders could spend their massive wealth. Yet, that doesn’t solve the problem in Iran. The resulting power vacuum would risk civil war within Iran, which leaves open the possibility of an even worse situation. The chaos could lead to an even greater collapse of the economy, including the halt of oil output, as well as fertilizer. People often forget that Iran is a significant producer of fertilizer on the world market. As such, the risk of this situation is far from being over.

The Supreme Court ruled Friday that the emergency powers act does not give the president the authority to raise revenue. The president’s vitriol reaction would suggest that he was caught by surprise by the decision, but the speed at which his administration implemented “Plan B” would suggest that he was very prepared for the decision. The soybean market immediately broke by more than 22 cents per bushel when the headline hit, but it then recovered most of that loss prior to the session close. I still see minimal impact from this decision on the Ag commodity markets. Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. Ag commodities as a result of the reciprocal tariffs, but that really didn’t change the economics. U.S. soybeans were generally more expensive than Brazilian soybeans landed at the ports in China prior to that anyway. The fact that China bought 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, and may buy another 8 mmt, has more to do with internal Chinese politics – as I’ve previously outlined – than it does economics.

I expect most of the other trade deals implemented over the past year to hold up. President Trump immediately levied tariffs under Section 122 that allows him to collect tariffs over the next 150 days, during which time an investigation takes place to justify the tariffs, and other means can be used to continue them. Revenues collected are expected to remain near current levels. It’s yet to be seen how, or if, the nearly $180 billion collected to date under the previous order will be refunded. That will be returned to the lower courts to decide, at which time it could be an issue for the financial markets. The new tariff avenue exempts energy imports, as well as critical minerals, fertilizers, and certain agricultural products. That should reduce the potential impact on inflation. Also exempted will be anything already covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA).

However, the headlines surrounding the court’s decision continue to keep “uncertainty” an issue in the U.S. economy. Uncertainty keeps businesses from implementing expansion plans, and it keeps consumers from making big ticket purchases. That’s a problem for President Trump during this midterm election year. He needs to restore certainty to the economy so that businesses take advantage of the stimulus to expand in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that took effect January 1, boosting employment and easing consumer concerns so that they take advantage of record M2 money supply to creating robust economic growth ahead of the midterm elections. President Trump’s agenda is sharply curtailed if he loses Congress in November, and that remains a significant risk to this administration, which is why I expect more steps to come to try to restore certainty in the weeks and months ahead.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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