Perspective: Morning Commentary February 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 03 Feb 2026, 14:56

February 3 – A trade deal with India and stabilizing gold prices eased concerns on Wall Street, allowing stocks to also stabilize amid recent encouraging economic data. Stocks were mixed to firmer overnight, while the VIX slipped lower to trade near 16, and the dollar index traded near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%, on the cusp of possibly testing five-month highs, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.59% as the yield curve steepens. Crude oil prices dipped lower overnight, but they have since rallied to 1% gains. The grain and oilseed complex is also mostly higher, led by strong gains in soybean oil after the Treasury Department released the final 45Z funding guidelines for the biofuel industry.

The partial government shutdown moves into its fourth day today, meaning that we’ve already seen announcements regarding delays for today’s JOLTS report, as well as Friday’s monthly employment report. The Senate passed a funding bill over the weekend that included funding for the rest of the fiscal year for everything except the Department of Homeland Security. The DHS was given funding for two weeks in the bill, allowing Republicans and Democrats to work out differences over ICE enforcement of immigration policy. The two sides are far apart on that, suggesting that the next fight over funding DHS could linger well beyond the two-week period. The funding bill is expected to receive a vote in the House today, after a critical rules vote that the Democrats have vowed to oppose. Republicans can only afford to lose one vote to move it forward, which they are cautiously optimistic that they can do. If so, we may see the government reopen tomorrow.

Gold prices are recovering today, following their utter collapse on Friday. Yet, it’s too soon to say whether the downside risk is behind us. Gold and silver prices were quite vulnerable following their recent exponential ride to record high prices, and the triggering mechanism for the sharp selloff came when President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the new Federal Reserve Chair starting in May. I don’t see his nomination justifying the type of selloff that we saw in gold and silver, but markets often act irrational when they have so much pent-up energy, and they can remain irrational longer than one can stay liquid. That said, there is a fundamental connection. Kevin Warsh believes that much of our inflation stickiness is due to the large balance sheet held by the central bank following years of quantitative easing, which matches up with what I’ve been saying in recent years as well. But shrinking that balance sheet at a time when government spending remains unrestrained means that we can expect risks for higher interest rates as an alternative investment versus gold and silver.

Panama’s Supreme Court recently ruled that Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s operation of two ports in Panama is unconstitutional. As such, Panama appointed Danish shipping company Maersk the responsibility to temporarily operate the ports. President Trump raised the concern of Chinese ownership of key sections of the Canal when he ran for his second term in office, even threatening to take back the Canal. The United States turned over ownership of the Canal to Panama on the condition that it would manage the key transportation channel. China had acquired many assets along the port, including strategic locations at both ends of the Canal. Most trade between Europe and China goes through the Suez Canal. Most trade between South America and China goes around the southern end of Africa. So why would China want to have so much ownership of the Panama Canal – mandarin is seen along the stretch of the passage – unless it would be to strategically be able to restrict U.S. trade and/or military movement. The Panama Canal is seen as a strategic channel for moving U.S. military assets from the Atlantic to the Pacific in defending ourselves and our allies, including Taiwan. It’s also noteworthy that Australia is seeking to take back control of a key port in Darwin currently operated by a Chinese firm initiated in 2015 with a 99-year lease.

Soybean oil prices surged overnight on rumors that the Treasury Department was about to release the final 45Z funding guidelines for the nation’s biofuel program. That in fact did happen this morning. I’m still parsing through the 170-page document, but it appears that it maintains the removal of the Indirect Land Use Charge from the carbon intensity score formula as expected, which gives soybean oil a 30-cent jump in value for the production of renewable diesel and biodiesel. North American feedstocks are favored, and used cooking oil from outside of North America is statutorily disqualified beginning in 2026. However, the real impact guidelines continue to be the RVO blending guidelines, and guidance on offsets to the small refinery exemptions issued last year. There are still a number of different scenarios that could play out when we see those final EPA guidelines, which we anticipate will be released in late February or early March, depending on how long this government shutdown lasts. While we don’t know, our bias is that the White House is using the biofuel program to support agriculture, so we expect guidelines that are notably bullish demand for feedstocks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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