Perspective: Morning Commentary February 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 05 Feb 2026, 14:46

Today's Perspective Video: 45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuel Industry; Market Implications

February 5 – Positive earnings continue to live in the shadow of AI fears this morning with stock futures trading a negative bias overnight. The VIX traded to its highest level since late November this morning as it pushed above 21, while the dollar index traded near 97.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 3.51%, after this morning’s weekly jobs data and Challenger job-cut report helped raise the prospect of more rate cuts. Crude oil prices traded 2% lower in early trade, while the grain and oilseed complex was mixed, with soybeans adding to yesterday’s gains on China sales hopes, while corn and wheat lagged behind.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 231K in the week ending January 31, up from 209K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 212K. This pushed the four-week moving average up to 212.25K claims, up by 6K from the previous week, although it is still a historically low number. Continuing claims for the week ending January 24 rose by 25K to 1.844 million, reversing the previous week’s trend. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 14,750 to 1.851 million, which puts it at its lowest level since October 2024. Initial claims for benefits filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending January 24 totaled 568, down 230 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending January 17 totaled 12,565, down 795 from the previous week. Today’s Challenger Job-Cut report revealed that firms gave notice of possible layoffs to 108,135 individuals in December, up from 35,553 in November. That doesn’t mean that they will layoff that many people, but it does say that they might do so, which reflects increased risk in December. The government will release its JOLTS report on job openings, quits and firings later this morning.

President Trump impacted the markets again on Wednesday when he posted mid-morning that he had just completed what was apparently a lengthy call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He stated that they talked about many subjects, including trade, military, and his anticipated April visit to Beijing. Furthermore, they apparently talked about Taiwan, the Ukraine war, Iran, the possibility of China buying more energy from the United States, and the possibility of China considering purchasing more U.S. soybeans. Specifically, President Trump is asking China to purchase another 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans in the current year to bring this year’s total to 20 mmt (735 million bushels). Soybean futures rallied 50 cents and Brazilian farmer sales soared. He went on to say that he has a very good personal relationship with President Xi, which “is an extremely good one,” and that they both “realize how important it is to keep it that way. I believe that there will be many positive results achieved over the next three years of my Presidency having to do with President Xi, and the People’s Republic of China!”

For context, it’s important to understand that the above call took place just hours after President Xi had a lengthy video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. China reports that call focused on calming geopolitical tensions about Iran, Taiwan, and Ukraine. State media did not mention any trade promises referred to by Trump in his statement. Rather, the official account of conversations released within China emphasized Taiwan as the most important issue discussed between Xi and Trump. Xi reportedly told Trump, “China is true in word and resolute in deed; we do what we say.” Shortly after the Trump call, China’s top diplomat in Washington posted on social media that “the coming year could see a series of high-level interactions between our countries.”

Let me add a third piece now. China released the “No. 1 Document” for 2026 today – a blueprint for China’s rural and agricultural production tasks for this year. Within this top-level document, it is worth noting a shift in tone from years of emphasis on self-sufficiency to wording supporting the equal importance of participating in agricultural trade and expanding imports of products in short domestic supply. A senior official then commented after the release that farm product imports are essential to protect national food security. This is a major policy shift that is expected to lead to broader Chinese imports of agricultural products – especially from the United States – echoing Xi’s commitment to Trump. The U.S. balance sheet doesn’t have another 8 mmt of soybeans to export to China this year if the U.S. biofuel program is going to stay on track, nor does it have 25 mmt the following year without a bumper crop in 2026. As such, I don’t expect this to happen, but neither can I rule it out. Why? President Xi has serious issues at home, as reflected in the ongoing purge in the military. President Trump has serious issues ahead of the midterm elections. Both need each other’s cooperation this year more than most realize. I expect Xi to offer to buy other commodities rather than the additional soybeans that would be easier to manage. But it’s possible that Trump will insist on the soybeans, which would require the market to ration existing supplies, while displacing Brazilian demand, pressuring its basis to send non-China business to Brazil. We would also likely see imports of Brazilian soybeans into the Southeast feed market for crush if this were to happen.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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