Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 10 Apr 2024, 12:50

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

April 10 – All eyes were on inflation data this morning and another hotter-than-expected reading put a real dent in Wall Street enthusiasm; equities futures tumbled following the 7:30 AM central time release, after peaking higher pre-report-release. Dow Jones futures are indicating more than a 450-point drop as of the time of this writing, with both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ pointing towards losses of well over 1% as well. Treasury yields surged (more than 10 bps higher for both the two-year and ten-year) with the trade now scaling back closer to expecting two Fed rate cuts for the remainder of 2024, rather than three, and a June rate cut essentially off the table. The U.S. dollar index is surging back towards week-ago highs after a week of declines, with foreign currencies plummeting against the greenback, including the euro – that’s ahead of an expected steady interest rate announcement from the European Central Bank following their meeting tomorrow.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.5% year-over-year in March, with CPI excluding food and energy up 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY; all of those were one tick (0.1%) higher than trade expectations, and steady to higher from February readings as well. It’s the third straight month of higher-than-expected readings as Fed policies fail to eliminate sticky inflation. The list of items pushing up core inflation is a long one, including clothing, education, medical care, etc.

MBA Mortgage Applications edged higher on the week ending April 5, up 0.1% after a 0.6% decline on the week prior; home purchases fell 4.7% week-over-week after falling 0.1% the week before, while home refinancings rose 9.9% after falling 1.6% in the previous week. That was despite the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising back above the 7% mark for the first time in a month, to 7.01%, up from 6.91% the previous week. The U.S. housing market is holding on to decent momentum as analysts see buyers getting accustomed to “elevated” interest rates.

Wheat is leading gains this morning but the rest of the grain complex doesn’t seem willing to follow its lead, and any grain “rallies” don’t look like enthusiastic ones amid a bearish fundamental overall environment. The southern Plains are seeing beneficial rains through mid-week with corn planting officially kicking off in a dry heart of the corn belt as well. The grain trade is mostly in wait for Conab and USDA data tomorrow morning, and also mostly ignored as the larger marketplace processes today’s inflation readings.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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