Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 12 Apr 2022, 13:27

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 12 – Inflation is front and center on Wall Street today. Stocks traded quietly higher ahead of this morning’s inflation data, while money flowed into the broader commodity sector after the White House warned late Monday that this morning’s number might be high. Money continued to flow into the commodities following the inflation data’s release, while the equities rally gained a bit more momentum on hopes and expectations that the Federal Reserve will tame inflation beginning next month. The VIX rose to a fresh three-week high above 25 overnight, while the dollar index reached a fresh 22-month high above 100.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.72%, after rising to a fresh three-year high near 2.84% overnight. Crude oil prices are trading 4% higher, while the Ags are mostly higher as well, boosted by a combination of inflation money flow, as well as fundamental support.

The consumer price index headline number came in a bit hotter than expected at a fresh 40-year high. The CPI for March jumped 1.2% month-on-month in March, up from an increase of 0.8% in February and above analyst expectations of 1.1%. In other words, inflation was a problem prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but that event escalated inflationary pressures in March. The CPI rose at a 40-year high pace of 8.5% in March, up from 7.9% in February and above analyst expectations of 8.4%. The sectors leading inflation higher were gasoline, food, and shelter, which are all necessities of living for consumers. Yet, the Fed tends to focus on the core inflation data that excludes the food and energy sectors. The core CPI rose 0.3% in March, down from 0.5% growth in February and down from analyst expectations of 0.5%. The core CPI rose 6.5% in March, up from 6.4% the previous month and below analyst expectations of 6.6% year-on-year inflation.

Gasoline prices rose 25% on the month in March as most consumers know, and it was up 48% year-on-year. Total energy was up 11% month-on-month and up 32% year-on-year. Food purchased for consumption at home was up 1.5% month-on-month and up 10% year-on-year, while food purchased for consumption away from home was up 0.3% month-on-month and up 6.9% year-on-year. Shelter prices rose 0.5% month-on-month and they are up 5.0% year-on-year. New vehicle prices are up 12% year-on-year and used vehicles are up 35% year-on-year, but there was some good news here. New car prices were “only” up 0.2% month-on-month in March while used care prices fell 3.8% month-on-month in March. Car prices seem to be peaking. Commodities other than food and energy fell 0.4% month-on-month in March, although they are still up 11.7% year-on-year. It’s generally the food and energy commodities that are seeing the strong gains. Those sectors had solid fundamentals prior to the Ukraine war, with demand rising faster than production, but the war amplified those problems, creating even more escalation of prices. We should see inflation data from the producer level tomorrow, at which time the focus will again be on the anticipated response from the Federal Reserve in three weeks.

This brings us back to Ukraine, and its anticipated impact on commodity supplies over the coming year as the war rages on there. As you know, I remain pessimistic that Ukraine will be able to be a significant exporter in the year ahead, but I also want to be transparent that the view coming out of Ukraine is more optimistic. The Ukrainian Grain Association expects Ukraine to produce 18.2 million metric tons of wheat this year, down from 33 mmt last year. Domestic consumption is near 6 mmt, so that would leave roughly 12 mmt available for export, with close to 10 mmt carried over from the previous year’s crop that have not yet been exported. That would seem to say that Ukraine could export 22 mmt, although the UGA puts 2022-23 wheat exports at 10 mmt. Corn production is expected to reach 23.1 mmt, down from 37.6 mmt the previous year, with exports at 20 mmt. Sunflower seed production is expected to reach 9.8 mmt, down from 16.9 mmt the previous year. The UGA projects total 2022-23 grain exports at 35 mmt, although that will necessitate the reopening of ports at the necessary capacity. Exports to the west via land routes have a capacity of 600 kmt per month. They need to be able to expand that capacity to 3 mmt per month to reach the anticipated target. That’s a very optimistic outlook in the current environment.

The Biden Administration will reportedly support an emergency waiver to allow the sale of E-15 gasoline this summer, although that will likely have very little impact on ethanol use until/unless the move is made permanent. Meanwhile, the market remains skeptical of Ukrainian exports, with traders starting to take note of the cool wet spring seen across central and eastern areas of the Midwest that is slowing fieldwork, while drought continues to rage in the Plains. Snowfall totals of 1 – 2 feet will provide some drought relief in North Dakota, but the drought continues further south. Winter wheat condition ratings firmed slightly but remain the second lowest on record for the date. Good to Excellent ratings rose by 2 points in the wheat state of Kansas to 34%, but the percent rated Poor to Very Poor also rose by 2 percentage points to 32%. As for China, there are early indicators that Covid numbers “may” be peaking, raising hopes that demand may soon be recovering in the world’s largest importer of commodities.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.