Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 19 Apr 2022, 13:33

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 19 – Stock futures traded both sides of unchanged overnight, as Wall Street balances earnings reports against rising interest rates, shutdowns in China and the intensifying war in Ukraine. The VIX is trading near 23 this morning, reflecting a steady uneasiness on Wall Street. The dollar index posted a fresh two-year high above 101.0 as yields on 10-year Treasuries topped 2.92%, which is their highest level since December 2018. Crude oil prices were 3% lower as they pulled back from yesterday’s three-week highs, while natural gas pulled back from yesterday’s 13-year highs. The Ags slipped into the red this morning, after corn prices posted fresh contract highs overnight amid slow planting woes, while wheat prices followed a similar pattern following USDA’s crop progress report showed deteriorating conditions in the Plains once again.

U.S. housing starts rose to an annualized rate of 1.793 million units in March, up from analyst expectations of 1.750 million. Furthermore, the February data was revised to 1.788 million starts, up from the 1.769 million reported last month. Permits issued for new starts is another number closely monitored for future housing construction activity. Housing permits rose to an annualized rate of 1.873 million in March, beating analyst expectations of 1.830 million and up from an upwardly revised 1.865 million issued the previous month. This is good news for the housing industry, suggesting that demand for houses remains strong, despite rising mortgage rates. Builders say they could build more houses, although they might lack cabinets or other necessities due to supply chain problems.

APK Inform reports that rail cars continue to back up at Ukraine’s western border as Ukraine seeks to export grain over land to Poland and Romania, where it can be loaded onto ships. Nearly 30K cars were backed up as of last week, according to the local consultancy, up 28% over the past two weeks. Rail cars arriving at the border must be manually jacked up for a new carriage to be placed under them that works on Europe’s narrower rail lines, or the grain must be transferred to cars from the west. Ukraine shifted grain movement from its ports, which are blocked by Russia, to the west to move over land, but that dramatically reduces the volume that it can move. But the rail systems in Poland and Romania are overwhelmed with the new volume, even with the congestion at Ukraine’s border slowing movement. Ukraine hopes to make the infrastructure adjustments necessary to export more than 2 million metric tons per month over land, but it’s still at just a fraction of that volume currently. Exports were well over 6 mmt per month prior to the Russian invasion.

Russian troops are now in position for an intensified assault on eastern areas of Ukraine now that they’ve repositioned from their attack on the capital city of Kyiv. The United States and other NATO countries stepped up their provision of weapons to Ukraine after seeing the success that Ukraine has had in holding off Russia. Western forces provided token support in the early days of the war, believing that Ukraine would quickly fall. However, the West now believes that Ukraine has a chance at defeating Russia. That’s both good and bad for the Ukrainian people. Chasing Russian troops back home to Moscow would obviously be a desired end for the people of Ukraine, but Russian President Putin is not likely to concede defeat. Rather, he would be expected to do “whatever is necessary” to gain some victory that he could claim back home, which means more of a scorched-earth approach to the war. That means that the worst may still be ahead for Ukraine as Russia seeks to at least claim eastern portions of Ukraine, along with the ports in the South to cut off Ukraine’s ability to do significant commerce to support its economy. It also means that the list of war atrocities likely increases in length, meaning that it will likely be a long time before the world is willing to remove sanctions from Russia. A worst-case scenario for Ukraine would be defeat, but another bad outcome for them would be a cease-fire agreement that leaves things at a draw, which would leave Russian troops in place for continued tensions and intrusions for years to come, which would also have a chilling impact on commodity production and exports.

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell again this week, although they remain just above record low levels for mid-April set in 1996. A short crop is now all but assured – we just don’t yet know how short. USDA statisticians will be walking fields to derive their estimate for the May 12^th WASDE report starting in 10 days, but that will be a challenge, considering the lateness of the crop. U.S. corn planting advanced to 4% as of Sunday, up from 2% the previous two weeks, but below the five-year average of 6%. Farmers are nervous, as are the markets, although I still expect things to open up enough at this point by mid-May to get the crop planted, although progress bears monitoring.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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