Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 21

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Tue, 21 Apr 2026, 13:02

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

April 21 – The market appears confident that the ceasefire will be extended prior to its expiration tomorrow despite lingering uncertainty over the fate of anticipated second-round peace talks in Pakistan. After much back-and-forth, Vice President JD Vance is reportedly expected to depart for Islamabad today, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran would be sending a delegation today as well, though Iranian state media has disputed that claim. The fog of war continues, but the market seems content to look through it as stock futures point to a positive open to start the session. The VIX is looking at a very quiet start, hovering right around unchanged near 18.9, still well below the elevated levels seen previously during the conflict. The dollar is slightly in the green to start the session, hanging just above 98.2 at the time of writing as it remains essentially right in the middle of the tight range seen over the last week of trade. Similarly, treasuries are quietly in the green, with 10-year yields around 4.266% and 2-year yields around 3.754%. Reflecting the relative calm in the market regarding the conflict, crude oil futures are also looking at a quiet start, with nearby WTI up roughly 1.5% to trade around $87.20 at the time of writing while nearby Brent hangs just below unchanged around $95.40. Meanwhile, the ags are largely mixed at the break, with the wheat complex erasing overnight session gains to now hang in the red while soybeans push higher and corn is caught in the middle, hovering right around unchanged.

Retail sales surged 1.7% month-over-month in March, surpassing analysts' expectations of a 1.4% rise and marking the largest monthly increase since January 2023. In year-over-year terms, headline retail sales were up 4.0%. As could be expected, much of this jump in the headline reading was driven by the surge in gasoline prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Drilling down to exclude gasoline and auto purchases, retail sales were still up 0.6% month-over-month, now matching February after they were revised upward to 0.6% from their original 0.4% rise. This now marks six consecutive monthly increases in U.S. retail sales excluding gas and autos, with the 0.6% February/March gains representing the strongest since August of last year, continuing to point to a resilient U.S. consumer.

U.S. soybean planting is off to a record pace, advancing another 6% despite a wet week for much of the Midwest to reach 12% complete. This is now 4% ahead of the same time last year and 5% ahead of the previous 5-year average for the week. The Delta and Ohio River Valley regions are the furthest ahead of schedule, though they’re not the only ones off to a quick start. Corn planting advanced another 6% week-over-week as well, reaching 11% complete to sit exactly in line with last year at this time. Current forecasts indicate we should see another solid week of planting progress in the days ahead, save for some spotty areas of wetness, before more widespread coverage moves in during the 6-10 day window. The Northern Plains are expected to remain largely dry over the next two weeks, however, which should allow for rapid progress to be made up there. As always during the planting and early establishment period, we’ll continue to monitor changing forecasts closely, but there appears to be little threat in the near-term today.

U.S. winter wheat ratings fell another 4% week-over-week to now sit at 30% good/excellent nationally, remaining sharply below average and marking the worst at this time since 2023. It remains a tale of two extremes, however, with soft wheat country largely in great shape, especially the soft white winter wheat crop in the Pacific Northwest. The soft red crop in the eastern Midwest remains mostly around average levels, though some of the fringe producers in the Southeast like North Carolina and Arkansas saw notable week-on-week declines to now sit well below their respective averages. The real problems continue to center on the still-dry U.S. Plains, with top producer Kansas falling 8% week-over-week to 24% good/excellent, now 10% below their average at this time, while neighboring Oklahoma held steady at their dismal 10% good/excellent. Nebraska (-3%) and Colorado (-2%) also saw weekly declines to sit at only 11% and 14% good/excellent, respectively, the lowest ratings at this time since 2013 for both states. These two were also among the hardest hit by the weekend freeze that saw temperatures dip into the teens and low 20’s, as did portions of western Kansas, adding further stress to an already struggling crop. Forecasts do show good chances of rains making their way into these areas over the weekend and into next week, however, which could bring some relief, but a notable amount of damage has likely already been done.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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